Sunday’s 15-game slate offers some intriguing value spots that the markets may not have fully priced in.
We’ve got several starting pitchers due for regression against lineups that underlying metrics suggest are primed to break out, while some seemingly weaker starters are actually performing better than the surface numbers indicate.
Find out more in my MLB picks for April 19.
MLB moneyline picks for April 19
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 DETvs  BOS |
+117 |
 KCvs  NYY |
-150 |
 SFvs  WSH |
-122 |
 TBvs  PIT |
+117 |
 BALvs  CLE |
-122 |
 MILvs  MIA |
-104 |
 CINvs  MIN |
+104 |
 STLvs  HOU |
+122 |
 NYMvs  CHC |
-113 |
 LADvs  COL |
+261 |
 CWSvs  ATH |
-156 |
 SDvs  LAA |
-104 |
 TEXvs  SEA |
+117 |
 TORvs  AZ |
+113 |
 ATLvs  PHI |
-107 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 4-19.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for April 19
Tigers vs Red Sox: Tigers (+117)
Tigers win probability: 46%
Framber Valdez is one of the best arms in this game. Boston sits at 8-11, and being favored at -122 is a market mistake.
Tigers plus money offers strong value.
Royals vs Yankees: Yankees (-150)
Yankees win probability: 60%
This matchup features shaky starting pitching, and I expect a slugfest.
That being the case, the Yankees have better hitters, while Kansas City has been brutal on the road.
Giants vs Nationals: Giants (-122)
Giants win probability: 55%
Miles Mikolas has been highly inefficient.
Robbie Ray has been good thus far, and we’ll eat the juice and roll with Ray and the Giants to hammer Mikolas today.
Rays vs Pirates: Rays (+117)
Rays win probability: 46%
Shane McClanahan is coming off his best start of the season, while Mitch Keller is coming off his worst.
The Rays' sticks have been solid and are worth backing at plus-money.
Orioles vs Guardians: Guardians (-122)
Guardians win probability: 55%
Joey Cantillo is the real deal, while Trevor Rogers boasts a .404 xFIP.
Cantillo is a fireballer, and the Orioles’ top-10 strikeout rate should get overwhelmed by the young lefty and the Guardians’ bats.
Brewers vs Marlins: Brewers (-104)
Brewers win probability: 51%
We have two fireballers on the hill this afternoon, along with a low total.
Jacob Misiorowski has been prone to the long ball, but I’m backing the Brewers' bats against Eury Perez and his command issues.
Reds vs Twins: Reds (+104)
Reds win probability: 48%
Believe it or not, Cincinnati has been more effective away from Great American Ballpark.
Bailey Ober has struggled to find any consistency, and Minny's bats won’t save him today.
Cardinals vs Astros: Cardinals (+122)
Cardinals win probability: 45%
Mike Burrows has struggled mightily to begin the season.
The Cardinals can score runs, and Matthew Liberatore will pitch decently enough to give the Cardinals' bats a chance to pull off the road upset.
Mets vs Cubs: Cubs (-113)
Cubs win probability: 53%
David Peterson and the Mets have both been brutal this season.
I’ll back the home team and its surging offense as short home favorites.
Dodgers vs Rockies: Rockies (+261)
Rockies win probability: 28%
We have two starters prone to the long ball, and two lineups full of sticks to capitalize on it.
The Rockies have a plus .500 mark at home, and there is no way I am backing Roki Sasaki at Coors.
Hold your nose and take Colorado.
White Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (-156)
Athletics win probability: 61%
Jeffrey Springs has been dynamite for the Athletics, while Noah Schultz is a rookie coming off a tough start.
The A’s are a more consistent offense with a better bullpen. Back Springs and the Athletics bats today.
Padres vs Angels: Angels (-104)
Angels win probability: 51%
Mike Trout seems to have found his stroke, and the Angels are scoring runs in bunches.
Michael King’s underlying metrics suggest he could get lit up today, while Reid Detmers numbers are solid.
Rangers vs Mariners: Rangers (+117)
Rangers win probability: 46%
Mackenzie Gore’s numbers are better than they already suggest, and the Mariners' offense will give Bryan Woo little support.
Texas has been heating up on offense, and I’ll take the Rangers at good value.
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks: Blue Jays (+113)
Blue Jays win probability: 46%
Although Toronto’s offense is riding the struggle bus, Ryne Nelson surrenders nearly two bombs per nine.
Let’s bet on the Jays' offense turning things around this afternoon.
Braves vs Phillies: Phillies (-107)
Blue Jays win probability: 52%
Andrew Painter and his 2.20 xERA look solid, whereas Clay Holmes’ xERA is two points higher than his ERA.
The Phillies' bullpen is also elite, so I’ll back Painter and the bullpen to get the job done tonight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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