Our Saturday MLB moneyline predictions have a nice mix of short favorites and solid underdogs in terrific individual and team matchups, including the San Diego Padres as -156 home favorites when they host the Minnesota Twins.
Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 22.
MLB moneyline picks for August 22
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Blue Jaysvs  Yankees |
-117 |
 Bravesvs  Brewers |
-127 |
 Nationalsvs  Marlins |
-170 |
 Cardinalsvs  Phillies |
-127 |
 Raysvs  Orioles |
-122 |
 Angelsvs  Rangers |
-144 |
 Athleticsvs  Astros |
+213 |
 Metsvs  White Sox |
-108 |
 Giantsvs  Red Sox |
+178 |
 Tigersvs  Royals |
-113 |
 Cubsvs  Mariners |
-108 |
 Piratesvs  Dodgers |
+233 |
 Guardiansvs  Rockies |
-122 |
 Redsvs  Diamondbacks |
-138 |
 Twinsvs  Padres |
-156 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-22.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 22
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from the previous two weeks.
Blue Jays vs Yankees: Yankees (-117)
Yankees win probability: 53.9%
New York holds a massive bullpen advantage with a 2.94 SIERA compared to Toronto’s league-worst 5.30 SIERA. While Toronto posted a higher BABIP (.319 vs. .290) and wOBA (.321 vs. .295), the Yankees' late-inning relief dominance provides the decisive edge to lock down the victory in the late frames.
Braves vs Brewers: Brewers (-127)
Brewers win probability: 55.9%
Milwaukee’s bullpen boasts an elite 3.43 SIERA, easily outclassing Atlanta’s 3.64 mark. Over the last two weeks, the Brewers’ offense has been far superior, posting a .325 wOBA and .330 BABIP against Atlanta’s ice-cold lineup (.264 wOBA, .258 BABIP). Milwaukee holds clear command across the entire plate-discipline and run-prevention profile.
Nationals vs Marlins: Marlins (-170)
Marlins win probability: 63%
Miami holds offensive leverage over Washington during the last two weeks, generating a .329 wOBA and .319 BABIP compared to the Nationals’ .306 wOBA and .299 BABIP. While Washington’s bullpen holds a slight SIERA edge (3.44 vs. 3.77), Miami’s superior efficiency and run creation at the dish should deliver the home victory.
Cardinals vs Phillies: Phillies (-127)
Phillies win probability: 55.9%
Philadelphia matches up cleanly against St. Louis with a superior bullpen SIERA of 3.91 versus the Cardinals' 4.53 mark. The Phillies' lineup also holds a distinct offensive edge, posting a higher wOBA (.332 to .329) and BABIP (.297 to .288) to control the scoreboard in this home matchup.
Rays vs Orioles: Rays (-122)
Rays win probability: 55%
Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-144)
Rangers win probability: 59%
Texas gets home-field positioning despite the Angels boasting a slate-best 2.92 bullpen SIERA over Texas’s 4.40 mark. While Los Angeles produced a slightly higher wOBA (.285 vs. .267) and BABIP (.299 vs. .264) recently, the Rangers’ overall lineup and starting pitching edge should carry them through.
Athletics vs Astros: Athletics (+213)
Athletics win probability: 31.9%
The Athletics hold significant offensive leverage over ice-cold Houston, outproducing the Astros in wOBA (.319 vs. .269) and BABIP (.273 vs. .226). While Houston maintains a bullpen edge (3.52 vs. 4.36 SIERA), laying -223 chalk on a sub-.270 wOBA lineup is unwise, making the A’s a live dog.
Mets vs White Sox: White Sox (-108)
White Sox win probability: 51.9%
The White Sox offense has been scorching, posting a slate-best .341 wOBA alongside a .291 BABIP to outpace the Mets (.321 wOBA, .285 BABIP). With Chicago’s bullpen also holding a clear SIERA advantage (4.00 vs. 4.35), the White Sox are primed to take this near coin-flip contest.
Giants vs Red Sox: Giants (+178)
Giants win probability: 36%
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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