The New York Mets deploy ace Kodai Senga at Fenway Park tonight against the Boston Red Sox as they look to lick their wounds from the Bronx.
My Mets vs. Red Sox predictions are bullish on Senga helping the visitors accomplish just that, especially with an inexperienced hurler toeing the opposite rubber.
I break it all down with my MLB picks for this clash on Monday, May 19.
Mets vs Red Sox prediction
My Mets vs Red Sox best bet: Mets moneyline (-130 at Caesars)
There's a huge pitching advantage for the New York Mets on Monday night, and I don’t think it’s priced enough into the moneyline odds.
Boston Red Sox righty Hunter Dobbins has been roughed up by the only strong offenses he’s faced, with the Tigers plating five in his latest start and the Twins going good for four runs on May 3.
The Mets definitely check out as a potent lineup with a seventh-ranked .327 wOBA and eighth-ranked .171 ISO against right-handed hurlers, and starter Kodai Senga has dealt this year.
Senga has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past eight outings, and he sports a sterling 1.02 ERA for the year. His 4.21 xFIP and 87.2% strand rate suggest rougher times are ahead, but the 32-year-old righty has a lot of room for negative regression before it’s worrisome.
I’m anticipating Senga to keep the Boston lineup off balance enough to give the New York bats a healthy head start.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 hits
A trip to Yankee Stadium didn’t suit Mets star Juan Soto’s fancy. He went 1-for-10 during the series against his former team, so I’m anticipating a rebound night for the five-time Silver Slugger.
Soto sports an elite .402 wOBA, .255 ISO, and .961 OPS against right-handed pitchers over the past three years, and Dobbins has served up a monster .458 wOBA and 1.074 OPS to lefty bats.
Red Sox star Rafael Devers also tees off on right-handed pitchers, and he’s running hot with a .573 WOBA and 1.375 OPS across his past 10 games. Even with the highlighted tough matchup, I like Devers to come through with a hit Monday. He sports a high-end .274 batting average and .367 wOBA against righties dating back to the beginning of 2023, after all.
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Mets vs Red Sox odds
Mets vs Red Sox live odds
Mets vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -140 | Boston +120
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+110) | Boston +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mets vs Red Sox trend
The Mets have won 27 of their last 42 games (+5.40 units / 8% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Mets vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Monday, 5-19-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, NESN |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (4-2, 1.02 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 3.90 ERA) |
Mets vs Red Sox latest injuries
Mets vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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