Mets vs Nationals Picks and Predictions: Pete Alonso Stays Hot at the Plate

The New York Mets have been one of baseball's biggest surprises this season, and they'll look to keep it going tonight. Will the Nationals be able to pull off the upset? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions.

Last Updated: May 11, 2022 12:55 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets in MLB betting action on Wednesday night. This is the second contest in a three-game set and the Mets are -188 road favorites as they look to increase their lead atop the NL East.

Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Nationals on May 11.

Mets vs Nationals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Mets installed as -173 favorites with the Over/Under at 8. Early money has come in on the Mets, shifting their line to -180. The total has stayed steady at 8, with a few books offering 7.5 and juiced towards the Over. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Nationals predictions

Picks made on 5/11/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Nationals game info

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Mets vs Nationals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tylor Megill (4-1, 2.43 ERA): The 26-year-old has looked very good this year, pitching to a 0.90 WHIP with a .183 OBA in 33 1-3 innings. In his last start, he allowed three runs in 5 1-3 innings against the Braves and fanned a season-high nine batters. Megill went 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 18 starts as a rookie last season.

Aaron Sanchez (1-2, 8.56 ERA): Sanchez was signed to a minor-league contract in the offseason but after pitching to a 3.60 ERA at Triple-A Rochester he was called up. Unfortunately for the Nats, he's still the same old Sanchez who was jettisoned by the Blue Jays and Giants in recent years. The 30-year-old has a 1.54 WHIP with a .333 OBA in three starts with Washington, and in his previous outing, he surrendered six runs in 4 1-3 innings against the Rockies. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: John Curtiss RP (Out).
Nationals: Alcides Escobar 2B (Probable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nationals are 10-41 in their last 51 games as a home underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals

Mets vs Nationals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

After a 20-8 start to their season, the Mets have surged to second on the World Series futures board despite still awaiting the season debut of superstar pitcher Jacob deGrom. New York edged the Nats 4-2 last night and have now won four of their last five games in Washington. 

The biggest reason for the Mets' success has been the play of their rotation and today's starter, Tylor Megill, has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in six starts.

The towering right-hander has a terrific extension on his release, making his already impressive velocity even more effective against opposing batters. He hasn't allowed a run in three of his six starts this year, including the season opener against the Nats when he allowed just three hits through five innings of shutout ball. 

The Nationals respond with Aaron Sanchez. It's wild to think that Sanchez went 15-2 and was an All-Star at the tender age of 23. After a horrific 2019 season (5.89 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 131 1-3 innings) and missing all of 2020 following shoulder surgery, Sanchez pitched a few innings with the Giants last year before being released. In three starts with the Nats this year, Sanchez has been brutal and his hard-hit rate of 59.6% is beyond ugly. 

The Mets have been solid at the dish, ranking seventh in the majors with an OPS of .717. They should be able to tee off against Sanchez.

The Nats haven't been quite as bad at the dish as they have been on the mound, but a middling OPS of .684 still doesn't move the needle. With 17 of the Mets' 20 wins this season coming by more than a run, we're backing them on the run line.

Prediction: Mets run line -1.5 (-106 at Sports Interaction)

Over/Under analysis

If it wasn't obvious earlier in this preview, we have very little faith in Sanchez. This is a guy that was one of the worst pitchers in the majors three years ago, and he hasn't given any indication that he's any better now. It won't get much better behind him with Nats relievers pitching to a collective 1.40 WHIP.

That said, while the Nationals' pitching has been miserable, they have been hitting the ball much better recently. Over the last two weeks, the Nats have a .784 OPS and are plating 5.25 runs per game.

With the Over 6-2-1 in Washington's last nine games overall, we're leaning towards the Over tonight. 

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-118 at 888Sport)

Best bet

Maybe we should be calling this preview: Three Ways to fade Aaron Sanchez. For this bet, we're looking at Mets' slugger Pete Alonso who will be eagerly anticipating Sanchez's tasty offerings over the middle of the plate.

Sanchez tends to rely on his once impressive sinker but opposing batters have a .526 slugging percentage against that pitch this season. Alonso has a .478 slugging percentage against sinkers this year but crushed sinkers to the tune of .608 in a larger sample size last year.

The 2019 home run king has been on a tear lately, going 11-for-26 at the plate (.423) with three dingers and pair of doubles in his last seven games. Alonso racked up at least two total bases in five of those contests, and while he had just a single last night, that was largely because he was walked three times. 

He's also had a ton of success at this venue, slashing .354/.426/.681 with nine homers and eight doubles in 30 career games at Nationals Park. We're taking the Over 1.5 total bases for Alonso at plus money.

Pick: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at DraftKings)

MLB parlays

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