The Cleveland Guardians will look to complete a series sweep on May 22 when they take on the New York Mets at Progressive Field.
Cleveland has won five straight, and my Mets vs. Guardians prediction expects them to make it six this afternoon against the second-best team in New York. Find out why in my MLB picks ahead.
Mets vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
While Triston McKenzie got off to a shaky start for the Cleveland Guardians, he’s been quite good over his last six starts. Since April 19, McKenzie has posted a 2.10 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .623 OPS — striking out 35 batters in 34 1/3 innings of work. Cleveland has won five of those games, and McKenzie hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those starts.
Outside of some control issues — McKenzie does lead the league with 28 walks — Cleveland couldn't ask for much more of its 26-year-old starter. And even that one problem seems to be getting better, as McKenzie has surrendered just three free passes in 11 innings over his last two starts.
McKenzie has arguably been the best pitcher in a strong Cleveland rotation. The Guardians have backed up their starters with an outstanding offense that is putting up 4.81 runs per game on the season, and that offense should get a chance to show out today against the struggling Jose Quintana.
The New York Mets liked what they saw from Quintana in limited action last season, but he hasn’t been the same pitcher in 2024. Quintana is just 1-4 with a 5.21 ERA on the year with a bloated 1.457 WHIP. The 35-year-old may simply be aging: he is allowing more hits (9.6), walks (3.5), and home runs (1.2) per nine innings, while his strikeout totals (6.2 per nine innings) are the lowest he's produced since his rookie year.
Over his last five starts, Quintana has been even worse, going 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA and allowing four homers in just 26 innings of work. He’s also been especially bad away from Citi Field, pitching to a 7.13 ERA and a 1.708 WHIP in five away starts this year.
The Guardians deserve to be much bigger favorites behind McKenzie than oddsmakers are giving them credit for today.
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Mets vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Under 9
Triston MacKenzie 4+ strikeouts
The Guardians should be able to win this afternoon behind a strong outing by McKenzie, and that forms the narrative I’ll be using to craft my same-game parlay.
I'm taking the Under, which is at an unusually high nine runs considering how well the Cleveland starter has been pitching. The Guardians should be able to score their fair share of runs, but the Mets offense has been too inconsistent to expect them to keep up.
In addition, I’ll take McKenzie to get at least four strikeouts this afternoon. He’s struck out at least five batters in each of his last six starts, so even with the Mets being a team that doesn’t swing and miss a whole lot, four punchouts should be an attainable total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Guardians odds
Mets vs Guardians live odds
Mets vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-170) | Cleveland -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: New York +110 | Cleveland -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Mets vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians have been one of the best moneyline teams in the majors this year, winning nearly 14 units for backers, while the Mets are down around six units on the season.
- Cleveland has won eight of its last nine games overall, including the first two games of the current series with the Mets.
- The total on today’s game opened at 8.5 runs. The consensus Over/Under has since moved to a flat nine runs, with -110 available on both sides of the market.
- The Guardians have played to a total of five runs or less in each of McKenzie’s last four starts.
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Mets vs Guardians trend
The Guardians are 5-1 in McKenzie’s last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Guardians
Mets vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSGL |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (1-4, 5.21 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Triston McKenzie (2-3, 3.23 ERA) |
Mets vs Guardians latest injuries
Mets vs Guardians weather
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