Mets vs Giants Picks and Predictions: San Francisco Struggles to Get Going

The New York Mets keep winning and while the Giants are a worthy opponent on paper, San Francisco has labored against lefty pitching this season and could struggle against David Peterson. We like the Mets at plus money to win as road underdogs.

Last Updated: May 23, 2022 1:22 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and the San Francisco Giants will renew acquaintances at Oracle Park tonight in the first matchup of a three-game series.

The Mets secured yet another series win over the weekend when they took two of three in snowy Colorado against the Rockies. Conversely, the Giants are licking their wounds in the aftermath of a series sweep at home against division-rival San Diego Padres. 

Which club will kick off this series on a winning note? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs Giants on Monday, May 23.

Mets vs Giants odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Giants opened as consensus moneyline favorites of -125, and bettors have backed them down anywhere from 10 to 20 cents at the majority of sportsbooks. The total opened at 7.5, and the Over is juiced significantly at most sites. An 8.0 has even appeared as of this writing. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Giants predictions

Picks made on 5/23/2022 at 11:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Giants game info

Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Date: Monday, May 23, 2022
First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet New York, NBCS-Bay Area

Mets vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

David Peterson (3-1, 1.89 ERA): Injuries to Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill have necessitated another call-up for Peterson. Fortunately for New York, Peterson has been more than up to the task this year. The 26-year-old southpaw owns a 1.11 WHIP over 19 innings of work this season. 

Alex Cobb (3-1, 5.61 ERA): Cobb has endured an up-and-down year thus far for the Giants. He was tagged for seven runs over 5 1-3 innings at Coors Field when last seen on Tuesday but had allowed only three earned runs over his previous 10 1-3 innings. Cobb’s strikeout/walk ratio on the year is a solid 32-9.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Max Scherzer SP (Out), Tylor Megill SP (Out), Jacob deGrom SP (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), James McCann C (Out).
Giants: Brandon Belt 1B (Out), Curt Casali C (Out), Jake McGee RP (Out), LaMonte Wade Jr. LF (Out), Anthony DeSclafani SP (Out)..
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 11-1 in their last 12 games after scoring two or fewer runs in their previous game.

Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants

Mets vs Giants picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets look poised to take their 10th series opener in 12 chances when they visit the Giants tonight.

David Peterson has answered the bell brilliantly when called upon this season, posting a 1.89 ERA over four starts (19 innings). Two of those outings occurred in some hostile environments, but he blanked the Phillies over four innings in Citizens Bank Park on April 11 before limiting the Diamondbacks to one run over 5 2-3 frames at Chase Field on April 22. 

Peterson will square off with a San Francisco lineup that’s hitting just .224 against lefties this season, 21st in baseball. Luis Gonzalez has been hitting at quite a clip since being called up in late April (.324 average), but he’s just 1-for-14 (.071) against southpaws. Austin Slater (.211) and Thairo Estrada (.200) are also among those in the Giants lineup struggling against lefties in 2022, and they bat right-handed! The Giants are lefty-heavy from top-to-bottom, which can cause problems in these splits. 

Alex Cobb could struggle to pitch deep tonight as Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte are a combined 9-for-27 (.333) all-time against him with a homer and four RBI. He’ll also have to watch out for NL RBI leader Pete Alonso, who has nine hits over his last five games, including two dingers. Luis Guillorme — batting .395 in May — could also prove to be a pest if manager Buck Showalter inserts him into the lineup once more. 

If New York manages to chase Cobb early, they’ll be able to tap into a San Francisco bullpen that’s 25th by ERA (4.89) over the last two weeks.

Trend bettors should note that the Mets are 21-6 in their last 27 games against right-handed starters, and 10-3 in their last 13 games against teams with winning records. 

Prediction: Mets moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Bettors should not expect a slugfest to break out in the Bay Area tonight.

The Giants lineup is a respectable 12th in strikeouts this year, but the Mets excel at inducing the ultimate rally-killer. As a staff, New York is second in strikeouts per game (9.42) this season. Peterson has 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and Chasen Shreve — a prime candidate to pitch in relief against a San Francisco lineup challenged by southpaws — has a career-high 12.9 K/9. 

Look for Giants catcher Joey Bart — with 41 strikeouts in 74 at-bats this year — to continue flailing in this spot.

The Giants may be second in runs per game (5.02), but they’ve plated only two tallies over their last 18 innings. Evan Longoria (.111) and Wilmer Flores (.227) are among those struggling at the dish over the last week.

Meanwhile, the Mets have been getting by without the long ball for most of 2022, as they’re 24th in home runs per game (0.80). It’s not entirely surprising despite the presence of Alonso, as Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo are two of New York’s best hitters, and they have a combined four taters in 2022. But there’s also been a lack of power from J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith — two players who figured to relish the universal DH — with only one four-bagger between them to this point.

San Francisco’s pitching staff is as good as anyone when it comes to keeping the ball in the park (0.71 homers per game), so the Mets will likely have to do their scoring in small doses. 

Prediction: Under 8.0 (-115 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Those looking to cash early while factoring the bullpens out of the equation in what figures to be a busy night for both relief corps should lock in this generous first five innings total.

It’s difficult to envision the Giants generating much traffic on the bases against Peterson, who sports a .189 opponent batting average this season. 

Cobb, meanwhile, has allowed only two home runs all year (25 2-3 innings) and owns a 3.38 ERA and .226 opponent batting average at home. He’s also limited the opposition to a .216 batting average the first time around the order.

These starters should be in control through at least the first four innings, and the relievers hopefully won’t get too involved before the fifth frame is over.

Pick: Under 4.5 first five innings (-138 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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