Mets vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Will Urias Finally Get Scoring Help?

Despite his poor record, Julio Urias has continued to shut down opposing lineups. If he gets an average night of scoring from the Dodgers lineup, he should help lead them to victory against the visiting Mets — as explained in our MLB betting picks.

Jun 5, 2022 • 11:56 ET • 4 min read
Julio Urias Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets broke a two-game losing streak, winning the third of a four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, 9-4, on Saturday. 

The Dodgers will now try and bounce back in a Sunday afternoon game. The pitching matchup pits two starters that may be better than their record would indicate.  

Will the Mets make it two in a row and escape Los Angeles with a split or will the Dodgers take the fourth game?

Check out what we think below with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for team Mets vs. Dodgers on June 5.

Mets vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

For the fourth consecutive game, the hometown Dodgers are favored over the Mets. L.A. opened at -196 but dropped to anywhere from -169 to -182. The Mets began at +165 and have dropped as low as +145, but most sportsbooks have them at +160.

The total started at 9 but has dropped to 8.5 in some spots. The Under is the favorite of the 9 total at -120 while the Over is listed at +100. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Dodgers predictions

Picks made on 6/5/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Sunday, June 5, 2022
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Sportsnet

Mets vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Trevor William (1-3, 2.58 ERA): Williams began the season in the bullpen but was pressed into service as a starter when Max Scherzer went out with an oblique strain in his right arm. With Scherzer joining starters Tylor Megill and Jacob DeGrom on injured reserve, Williams was the next man up. Despite a 1-3 record, Williams hasn’t pitched that badly. The 30-year-old right-hander has allowed just four runs in his last five games. He also has given up 13 hits in that same span. The problem with Williams is innings. Batters tend to figure out Williams the second time around. As a result, he has only pitched five or more innings once in his last five games.  

Julio Urias (3-5, 2.89 ERA): At first glance, it would appear Urias’ record is an indication he is struggling. Not so much. Yes, he is 3-5 on the year, but he has an ERA of 2.89, the 22nd-best mark in the majors. The problem for Urias is run support. The 25-year-old left-hander is only getting 2.20 runs per nine innings from his teammates. Compare that to the 7.01 runs Walker Buehler is getting. A perfect example of Urias and lack of run support was his May 25 start against the Nationals. Urias pitched six innings, allowing one run and four hits. The Dodgers bats were shut out and Urias picked up the loss. Urias should be able to handle the Mets, the issue is will he get enough runs from his teammates to try and get his fourth win of the season. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Trevor May RP (Out), Tylor Megill SP (Out), Travis Jankowski RF (Out).
Dodgers: Cody Bellinger CF (Questionable), Max Muncy 2B (Out), Kevin Pillar CF (Questionable) Blake Treinen RP (Out), Victor Gonzalez RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers.

Mets vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

After winning the first two games against the New York Mets, the Los Angeles Dodgers had a momentary slip on Saturday when they lost 9-4. They should right the ship in the Sunday finale of the four-game series. 

Julio Urias takes the mound for the Blue Crew and he is pitching much better than his record indicates. The lefty had a disastrous first start, but since then he has had nine solid outings. 

Urias has gone at least five innings in all those starts and, other than allowing eight runs against the Phillies, has kept opponents to four or fewer. He's even shut out teams on three occasions. 

What Urias needs is runs from his teammates. They have the sixth-best batting average in the majors, and are first in runs scored, but have been MIA when Urias is on the mound. They average 6.24 runs per game, but when Urias pitches that number drops to 2.20. That’s a big difference from the 7.17 runs he was getting last year. 

Urias will need all the help he can get as he faces a Mets team that is first in the majors in batting average and second in runs. They are also first in hits and tied with the Dodgers for first in RBI. 

The Mets are 2-7 in the last nine games at Dodger Stadium but are 4-1 against left-handers. 

Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (+115 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

We know Urias can limit teams to runs, but how will Mets’ starter Trevor Williams fare against powerful Dodger bats? Williams has a 3.58 ERA. Not as low as Urias, but he should be able to contain Los Angeles. 

Williams allowed four runs against the Colorado Rockies on May 21 but has blanked four other opponents in his last five games.  

In the three games the Mets and Dodgers have played, the Under has hit twice. It's also 6-2 in the last eight meetings at Chavez Ravine. 

The Mets have hit the Under in four of their last five games against left-handed starters. The Over, however, is 7-2 in the Mets' last nine after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.

The Dodgers are much friendlier to the Under. They've stayed Under in six of the last eight games and have also hit the Under in five of the last against righties.

Despite the impressive offensive numbers for both teams, I think both Williams and Urias should be able to keep the score low. 

Prediction: Under 8.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Except for Saturday, the Dodgers have been able to handle the Mets. In the two previous games, they limited the Mets to one run on eight hits. That is pretty impressive considering the NL East-leading Mets are one of the best offensive teams in the majors. 

With both teams’ potent offenses, what gets overlooked is L.A.’s pitching. The Dodgers are second in team ERA at 2.90. They are also sixth in hits allowed and third in earned runs. 

The bullpen has been a little dicey. The Dodgers took a big hit when Blake Treinen and Victor Gonzalez both went out with injuries and aren’t expected back until the All-Star break at the earliest. 

Treinen was slated to be the closer this season, but the team got Craig Kimbrel in a trade with the Chicago White Sox. Kimbrel, however, has been spotty so far, especially recently. He has given up five runs in four games, though he did get the save in the Dodgers’ 2-0 win over the Mets on Thursday. 

PickDodgers -1.5 (+115 at PointsBet)

MLB parlays

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