Cardinals vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Chicago Being Overlooked

This week’s iteration of Sunday Night Baseball — the first one of June — features two NL Central teams with opposite records.

The St. Louis Cardinals (31-23) sit 1.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the divisional standings and are looking to make ground. The Chicago Cubs (23-31) are ahead of only the Cincinnati Reds in the Central.

Remarkably, this will be the fifth game of the series — which included a doubleheader yesterday. The teams are tied at two apiece in the series.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday Night Baseball between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, June 5. Be sure to also check out our favorite player prop picks for tonight's game.

Cardinals vs Cubs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Cubs opened +123 at home. That line currently resides between +110 and +120, as money has come in on Chicago. The total opened at 8.5 across all books and hasn’t moved.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cardinals vs Cubs predictions

• Prediction: Cubs ML (+120)
• Prediction: Over 8.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Cubs ML (+120)

Picks made on 6/5/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cardinals vs Cubs game info

• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, June 5, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Cardinals vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Adam Wainwright (5-4, 2.75 ERA): The ageless wonder continues to be effective in his age-40 season. He doesn’t miss many bats per usual (7.32 KK/9 ratio) but does a good job of limiting hard contact. His 4.6%-barrel rate is an encouraging sign, but his 3.76 xERA and 3.92 xFIP indicate that some regression may be coming. He’s been in peak form lately, failing to allow more than three runs in any of his last seven starts. In his last outing against the San Diego Padres, he struck out 10 while allowing two hits across seven scoreless innings.

Justin Steele (1-5, 5.40 ERA): It’s been a struggle for Steele, who has a disturbing 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The good news is that some of his peripherals are encouraging, as his 3.48 xERA and 3.82 xFIP indicate some positive regression. He strikes out a lot of batters (25.3 K%) but must improve upon his walks (12.6 BB%). He’s issuing over five free passes per nine innings. Perhaps the most positive thing about his profile is his impeccable 1.1%-barrel rate — first among all pitchers with over 100 batted ball events. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: Corey Dickerson LF (Questionable), Dylan Carlson RF (Out), Tyler O’Neill RF (Out), Jordan Hicks RP (Out), Alex Reyes RP (Out).
Cubs: Seiya Suzuki LF (Out), David Bote 3B (Out), Jonathan Villar SS (Out), Michael Hermosillo CF (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out), Sean Newcomb RP (Out), Chris Martin RP (Out), Brad Wieck RP (Out), Codi Heuer (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Cubs are 4-2 in their last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs

Cardinals vs Cubs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Steele’s absurd 1.1%-barrel rate is a key factor in handicapping this matchup. It’s not what you’d expect when looking at the profile of a young starter with a 1-5 record and 5.40 ERA. Nonetheless, a further glimpse into his profile shows other solid metrics: 25% K-rate, 3.54 xERA, 3.22 FIP. 

In the last 10 days, St. Louis has been one of the worst teams in the league against lefties. They’ve managed just a .564 OPS against southpaws in that time frame, good for just 28th in the league. 

The weird thing about those numbers? If we zoom out and look at full-season numbers, the Cardinals rank first in OPS (.799) and wRC+ (128) against lefties. 

As for the Cubs, their lineup ranks 11th in wOBA over the last 10 days and 10th on the season. They’re a borderline Top 10 offense in most categories, falling slightly behind the Cardinals in most metrics. 

These two lineups are fairly even, with a slight edge to the Cardinals. I’d argue that the starting pitching matchup is closer than it appears at first glance. Steele’s walk rate is a huge concern, but he outpaces Wainwright in a few statistics. Namely, Steele has the edge in barrel rate (1.1% to 4.6%), xERA (3.48 to 3.76), and xFIP (3.82 to 3.92). 

I believe this is a close matchup and will be buying into Steele’s elite barrel rate. It’s a bit of a leap of faith blindly trusting the metrics because Steele’s actual results on the field haven’t been overwhelming, but I’m getting plus money odds to do so.

Prediction: Cubs moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

This is truly one of the most bizarre handicaps I’ve come across during this MLB season given the irregularity of the statistical profiles of both Justin Steele and this Cardinals lineup.

Let’s start with Steele. On one hand, he has an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP while walking far too many batters. On the other hand, he ranks first in barrel rate among all qualified starters — a sign that he does a great job of limiting hard contact. Many of his peripherals are actually better than his counterpart, Wainwright.

Now for the Cardinals. On one hand, they rank 28th in OPS against lefties in the last ten days. On the other hand, they rank first in both OPS and wRC+ against southpaws on the season. 

Overall, I’d trust the Cardinals’ full-season numbers over a small sample size for recent performance. I also trust Steele’s advanced metrics more than his 5.40 ERA, but he walks too many batters and is facing a tough lineup against lefties. I think it’s fair to expect a contribution to the total on this side.

Wainwright is a good pitcher, but most of his peripherals point toward some slight negative regression. The Cubs are a solid lineup and they’ve managed to go Over the total in three of their last four games.

Neither bullpen is deadly. The Cardinals have a 3.78 ERA in relief, while the Cubs’ bullpen has a 3.91 ERA.

I see more signs pointing to the Over, and I’m still not completely discounting the rumors about there being a juiced ball for nationally televised games like Sunday Night Baseball.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (+100 at Caesars)

Best bet

There seems to be some volatility in this matchup. Steele’s peripherals are all over the map in both good and bad ways, while the Cardinals hit lefties well. 

That being said, Wainwright is due for some regression (3.76 xERA, 3.92 xFIP) and much of his profile actually lags behind Steele’s. 

With so much volatility in a handicap, it makes me inclined to lean toward the plus-money underdog. I’ll put some trust in Steele’s elite barrel rate and take the Cubs on the moneyline. 

Pick: Cubs moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic