A fresh week is here, so let's get after it!
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include a double-dip selection of the St. Louis Cardinals in their doubleheader vs. the Cincinnati Reds.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks on Monday, Aug. 17.
MLB moneyline picks for August 17
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cardinalsvs  Reds (Game 1) |
-113 |
 Oriolesvs  Rays |
+147 |
 Marlinsvs  Phillies |
+223 |
| Cardinals vs Reds (Game 2) |
-117 |
 Tigersvs  Pirates |
-106 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Red Sox |
+133 |
 Padresvs  Mets |
+113 |
 A'svs  Royals |
+174 |
 Bravesvs  Twins |
-122 |
 White Soxvs  Cubs |
+147 |
 Dodgersvs  Rockies |
+239 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-17.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 17
Cardinals vs Reds Game 1: Cardinals (-113)
Cardinals win probability: 53%
Are the St. Louis Cardinals coming off a big series win over the Cubs? Of course, but that should not shy us away from backing the team clearly performing at a higher level. The Cincinnati Reds own a 69 wRC+, .247 wOBA and .611 OPS over their last 12 games, while the Cardinals have posted a 122 wRC+, .344 wOBA and .782 OPS during that same stretch.
To add insult to injury, the Reds send out Chase Petty, who owns a 9.00 ERA, 8.88 xERA, and 2.25 WHIP over his last three starts.
It is the Cardinals or nothing in Game 1.
Orioles vs Rays: Orioles (+147)
Orioles win probability: 40%
The Tampa Bay Rays have been dangerous all season long, and they still are, owning a 132 wRC+ over their last 12 games. However, their lack of hard contact, which has been an issue throughout 2026, is a concern against a lineup generating a 45% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate over its last 12 games, while sporting a 117 wRC+.
Shane McClanahan has been regressing over his last three outings and is coming off an IL stint. Brandon Young has also scuffled, but the Birds have been swinging a hot bat. At nearly +150, this is worth dabbling on.
Marlins vs Phillies: Marlins (+223)
Marlins win probability: 31%
From a moneyline price standpoint, nobody should be looking to pay $2.28 for a team to secure a regular-season win, especially when Janson Junk has been tossing some filth over his last five outings. The former punching bag owns a 3.97 ERA over his last five, but in his last three starts, he has posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
We all know how great Cristopher Sanchez has been this season. However, he has struggled with walks, and the Miami Marlins have been pretty disciplined at the dish, owning a 10% walk rate over their last 12 games. If they can get ducks on the pond and drive them in, they have a chance.
Cardinals vs Reds Game 2: Cardinals (-117)
Cardinals win probability: 54%
Real simple: I am not backing an ice-cold offense just because its starter has some solid underlying metrics across his last three starts. On the other side, the Cardinals have a pitcher who owns a 1.80 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last five outings.
Take the hot team in both games today.
Tigers vs Pirates: Tigers (-106)
Tigers win probability: 52%
Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski owns a 9.72 ERA, 7.43 xERA, and 2.16 WHIP over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Framber Valdez has improved over his last three, owning a 2.75 ERA while limiting opponents to a 5% barrel rate.
The Tigers' bats have gone cold, but there is no reason to trust an arm with a near 10.00 ERA.
Go Tigers.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox: Diamondbacks (+133)
Diamondbacks win probability: 43%
The Boston Red Sox's fall from grace has been very sad to watch, but getting the Arizona Diamondbacks at +133 with Mitch Bratt on the bump feels like a steal.
The Arizona southpaw has a 1.50 ERA, 2.49 xERA, and 0.89 WHIP over his last three starts, and has also done a great job limiting hard-hit balls and barrels.
Brayan Bello has had a great turnaround over his last five. However, the Red Sox offense continues to cool off, and there is far more value on the Diamondbacks with how hot their bats have been as well.
Padres vs Mets: Padres (+113)
Padres win probability: 47%
The San Diego Padres being a short underdog on the road feels a little odd. Their lineup is on fire, owning a sub-20% strikeout rate, while posting a 127 wRC+ and .808 OPS over the last 30 days. They draw New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has a 4.15 ERA over his last three starts.
Walker Buehler has been solid for the Friars over his last five starts, posting a 3.20 ERA while limiting hard-hit balls and barrels.
At +113, the Padres are the pick.
A's vs Royals: Athletics (+174)
Athletics win probability: 36%
Question for the reader: should the 2026 Kansas City Royals ever be a $1.78 favorite? No.
Sure, Michael Wacha owns a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three starts, while Mason Barnett has an 8.78 ERA during that stretch.
However, the Athletics' offense has been heating up over their last six games, owning a 131 wRC+, .820 OPS, and .217 ISO. The Royals, during that same stretch, have posted just a 58 wRC+, .112 ISO and .255 wOBA.
Give me the dog.
Braves vs Twins: Braves (-122)
Braves win probability: 55%
Braves southpaw Martin Perez has been lights out over his last five starts, owning a 1.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. With Bailey Ober on the rubber for the Twins, the Braves are the lean here.
Ober sports a 5.41 xERA over his last three starts while allowing a near 15% barrel rate to opposing hitters. With how dangerous the Atlanta bats can be, they should be able to handle anything Ober offers.
White Sox vs Cubs: White Sox (+147)
White Sox win probability: 40%
Sure, some will see Luis Castillo and rush to bet the Chicago Cubs this evening. But are we forgetting that Shota Imanaga has a 4.71 xERA over his last three starts? Both starters could be in for a long evening with how hot both lineups have been.
Tonight will come down to which bullpen can hold it down, and the Cubs' bullpen has been atrocious all season, owning a 4.47 xERA and 4.52 FIP while allowing a 41.41% hard-hit rate.
The never-say-die Chicago White Sox look tasty on the North Side.
Dodgers vs Rockies: Rockies (+239)
Rockies win probability: 30%
Reread the first sentence for the Marlins vs. Phillies breakdown.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' offense has been very cold over their last 12 games, posting just an 87 wRC+, .293 wOBA, and .660 OPS. The Rockies have been no better, but at least they are drawing more walks and limiting strikeouts.
Tomoyuki Sugano is a punching bag, but he has done a great job limiting walks and hard-hit balls as of late. Blake Snell is back and looked fantastic in his first start coming off the injured list, but I am hoping for some regression here. If he does, I like the Rockies to take advantage.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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