The New York Mets have dropped consecutive games and are mired in a 1-4 slump heading to Chase Field to open a three-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday, May 5.
New York and Arizona send deep lineups to the dish, and my top MLB picks focus on NL MVP candidates Juan Soto and Corbin Carroll.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 runs
Business is picking up for the New York Mets' prized offseason acquisition, Juan Soto. He’s cruising along a 12-for-39 stretch with five extra-base hits, a .410 wOBA, .231 ISO, and .938 OPS across the 10-game heater.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are sending Ryne Nelson to the hill for his first start of the 2025 season, and he’s saddling a 46.9% hard-hit rate in relief and doesn’t have a stellar track record as a starter with a career 4.83 ERA and 4.65 xFIP across 294 1/3 innings.
Nelson has also surrendered a healthy .343 and .812 OPS to left-handed hitters as a starter during his career, and Soto enters with an elite .407 wOBA, .265 ISO, and .957 OPS against right-handed arms dating back to the beginning of the 2022 campaign.
Additionally, Soto has a pair of homers with a .917 slugging percentage and 1.387 OPS across 17 career plate appearances against Nelson.
Turning to Diamondbacks star Corbin Carroll, he’s already scored 26 times across 34 games after collecting triple-digit runs in each of his first two full seasons in the majors. He’s also sporting an elite .340 on-base percentage for his career. Carroll has mashed RHP to the tune of a .369 wOBA, .249 ISO, and .868 OPS to start his career.
I also value the Arizona outfielder picking up a pair of hits Sunday to snap out of a mini funk in which he went 6-for-39 with a .483 OPS over a nine-game stretch. Carroll also stands to fare well against Mets righty Griffin Canning.
Canning sports a 2.61 ERA despite a 46.0% hard-hit rate, and he entered the campaign with a 4.73 ERA across 490 2/3 innings. Statistical correction looms for the New York righty.
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