The New York Mets wrapped up a 10-game home stretch (5-5 SU) and now head to Busch Stadium as a slight -115 favorite to take on the St. Louis Cardinals and Adam Wainwright, who is sitting on 198 career wins. Waino will have to outduel Jose Quintana to move closer to the 200-win milestone in a game where MLB odds expect offense with a lofty 10.5 total.
With Wainwright giving up runs in bunches but books hesitant to release any of his prop markets, is pivoting to some early run markets the best move for bettors looking to profit off of the great run-scoring opportunity for the Mets?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Cardinals for Thursday, August 17.
Mets vs Cardinals odds
Mets vs Cardinals predictions
Bettors have been stacking winners fading Adam Wainwright as the veteran pitcher continues to get starts despite a 10.49 ERA since the beginning of June — a stretch of 10 starts. Things have gone even worse of late as the right-hander has allowed 15 runs over his last four innings (two starts). There’s a reason he has very few prop markets today but there are still other derivative markets bettors can take advantage of.
Wainwright has struggled mightily in the first inning and over his first 25 pitches. He’s allowed 16 runs over his 15 first innings and hitters have a 1.103 OPS and a .404 batting average across his first 25 pitches.
New York leadoff man Brandon Nimmo is 11-for-26 over his last seven games with a .531 OBP. He’ll set the table in the first for Franciso Lindor (.339 AVG last 15 games), Pete Alonso (second in the MLB in RBI/PA), and Jeff McNeil (.321 AVG last seven games). The Mets aren’t the best first-inning run-scoring team but the matchup makes up for that.
The Cardinals don’t have the best matchup vs. Jose Quintana and most of their best left-handed hitting bats are questionable, but at -133 for a run in the first inning, the Cards aren’t a bad team to have if the Mets don’t take advantage of their great scoring opportunity in the top of the first. St. Louis is a Top-10 team in YRFI winning percentage. It’s also not a bad price considering the 10.5-point total.
As always, shop around as BetMGM has the YRFI at -133 while other books are as short as -155. If you don’t have an MGM account, the next best bet here is at DraftKings and that’s the Mets F3 innings team total Over 1.5 at -140.
My best bet: Yes run first inning (-133 at BetMGM)
Mets vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Yes run first inning (-150)
Mets F3 innings -0.5 (+105)
Most hits — Mets (-135)
I'm going fully correlated here and although I'm getting a worse number on the YRFI at bet365, the odds on this SGP are decent because bet365 does have the best SGP odds, by far.
The Mets should get on the board early and often vs. Wainwright, whose 15-plus H/9 is comically bad. Everyone is hitting him, especially early. Nimmo is swinging a hot stick and should set the table for the middle of the order.
Quintana is being undervalued here I feel and should keep this injured STL lineup down. The Cards got blanked by Paul Blackburn and the A's last night and might be without five of their best six lefty-hitting batters.
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Mets vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cards and Wainwright have surprisingly taken some money today as St. Louis opened as an even-money home dog and has gotten five points shorter to sit at -105 at the time of this writing.
The move towards St. Louis is head-scratching considering the state of Wainwright, who is only getting starts because he is chasing 200 career wins and sits at 198. He’s lasted just four innings over his last two starts and has given up 15 runs in those outings. It’s getting ugly for Waino, who is one of the most respected pitchers in baseball and sits fifth in career wins among active MLB pitchers.
The Mets have a great opportunity to stack early runs as the St. Louis starter has allowed 16 first-inning runs this year and batters are hitting .414 off him in the first frame. His 15.3 H/9 is as high as you can see that metric for a starter. He might not have the longest leash, but I can’t see a world where he shuts the Mets down.
Most books haven’t even posted any prop markets for Waino (other than 2.5 strikeouts) as he has become a betting opportunity for the public who is making stacks fading him. Wainwright has a 12.60 ERA in the second half with a 1.149 OPS against.
Quintana has made just five starts this year but is stretched out and has recorded a quality start in four straight. He’s keeping the ball in the park with zero home runs allowed over 29-plus innings and faces an STL lineup that has some bumps and bruises.
Lars Nootbar fouled a ball off his lower half last night is questionable and Tommy Edman exited last night as well. They could be watching along with Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, and Dylan Carlson. The Cards once had one of the deeper lineups in baseball but it enters tonight quite thin and scored zero runs vs. Oakland last night.
Those questionable bats will play a big part tonight vs. a lefty in Quintana. The top players in terms of wRC+ vs. lefties on this team are Gorman, Contreras, Tyler O’Neill, Edman, Paul DeJong (traded), and Carlson. That’s a majority of their best-hitting lefty bats potentially on the sidelines tonight vs. Quintana.
Because it’s a Wainwright start, bettors are getting a double-digit total at 10.5. The St. Louis starter affects the total by nearly 1.5 total runs and that is warranted as the club has no issues leaving him in when he is getting tagged. It will be 84 degrees at game time but there is a strong crosswind. If that wind shifts more towards RF, that could be an edge on the Over.
However, I’m happy with looking at the best props for early New York totals. The Mets to score in the first inning is +180 at BetMGM, the YRFI is -133 at there as well, and the Mets team total Over 1.5 first three innings is -140 at DraftKings. I’m going a full unit on the YRFI at -133 and a half-unit on the Mets to score in the first at +180.
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Trend to know
The New York Mets have hit the game total Over in four of their last six away games (+1.85 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals
Mets vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, August 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Jose Quintana (0-4. 3.03 ERA): Quintana will be making his sixth start of the season and has a 20:10 K:BB rate over 29-plus innings while the Mets are 0-5 SU when he gets the ball. The numbers aren’t awful as he is allowing less than a hit per inning, opponents are hitting .257, and he’s yet to give up a home run. He hit the 100-pitch mark in his last outing and has strung together four straight quality starts. THE BAT is projecting 88 pitches, 15.1 outs, 3.94 strikeouts, and 3.14 earned runs.
Adam Wainwright (37, 8.78 ERA): Poor Wainwright is getting lit up as the Cards continue to roll him out as he sits at 198 career wins. He’s allowed 15 runs over his last two starts, lasting just four innings in total, and has surrendered 113 hits across 66-plus frames. Batters are hitting .375 off him with an OPS north of 1.000. This could be his last start if he doesn’t get things on track. The Cards are 5-10 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 98 pitches, 17.8 outs, 3.64 strikeouts, and 3.55 earned runs.
