The Atlanta Braves will turn to a rookie pitcher as they look to take the lead in their four-game series against the New York Mets on Wednesday night. The Braves (7-3) scored a 6-5 win over the Mets (4-7) last night, and are once again favored in the MLB odds.
With another uninspiring pitching matchup on tap, both lineups will be itching to get to the plate again. We’ll break down what that means in our MLB picks and full Mets vs. Braves predictions for Wednesday, April 10.
Mets vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Offense has been on display in the first two games of this series. That’s not a surprise for the Atlanta Braves, who lead the league with 6.90 runs per game and will likely stay on the top of that list for the entire season. But the New York Mets started the year struggling to get anyone across the plate, and have now scored 5.5 runs per game over their last four outings.
The New York breakout was led on Monday night by Brandon Nimmo, who went 4-for-4 with two homers and five RBIs. Pete Alonso went deep in last night’s loss as part of a two-hit evening. Francisco Lindor is still struggling, hitting just .089 on the year, but the rest of the Mets lineup seems to be breaking out of a shockingly slow start.
The Braves are hitting in this series as well, but that’s nothing new for a roster that hits as a whole better than most individual players in the league. Jarred Kelenic is off to a torrid start, batting .462 on the year. Marcell Ozuna has five homers and 13 RBIs to start the season, while Orlando Arcia, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies are all hitting well over .300. Atlanta can and does hit against anyone it plays.
Once again, tonight’s pitching matchup won’t do much to slow these teams down. The Mets are turning to a solid starter in Jose Quintana, but the 35-year-old has a 5.94 FIP this year, signaling a huge regression to come after two starts where he managed to avoid giving up many runs.
The Braves are starting a pitcher with even more question marks. Allan Winans is a 28-year-old who made six starts for Atlanta last year, but still has his rookie eligibility this season. Winans went 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA in 2023, and while he performed well in the minors last season, his ceiling is probably landing as a spot starter or long reliever at the major league level. A resurgent Mets lineup should be able to tee off against him while he stays in the game.
Put it all together, and we’re once again looking at a high-scoring game between these two teams. For a third time, sportsbooks have set the total at 9.5 runs, and that’s still not enough. I’m taking the Over again in tonight’s game.
Mets vs Braves same-game parlay
Over 9.5
Braves moneyline
Marcell Ozuna 1+ RBI
The Braves are the better team in this matchup regardless of any pitching questions, so it makes sense to include a moneyline bet on Atlanta to go along with our Over play for this same-game parlay. In addition, I’m taking Marcell Ozuna to pick up an RBI tonight.
Ozuna already has 13 RBIs on the year, and has tallied at least one in six of his last nine games, including the first two matchups with the Mets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves live odds
Mets vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
- Moneyline: New York +152 | Atlanta -166
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Mets vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened today’s game as a -166 favorite. The consensus moneyline now has the Braves at -162, while the Mets are available at +140.
- The Braves are up more than 1.5 units on the moneyline this year. The Mets have lost bettors three units on the moneyline this season.
- The total for tonight’s game opened at 9.5. That remains the consensus Over/Under, with most books offering -105 on the Under, while -112 is the best price I found on the Over.
- The Over is 7-2 in Atlanta’s games this season. The Under has a slight 6-5 edge when the Mets play this year.
Mets vs Braves trend
The Over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSSO |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (0-1, 2.61 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Allan Winans (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Mets vs Braves weather
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