Mariners vs Athletics Prediction, Picks & Odds — Monday, July 28

Nick Kurtz is crushing baseballs left and right, and Luis Castillo and the Mariners are set to be his latest victims, per our MLB betting picks.

JD Yonke - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Betting Analyst
Jul 28, 2025 • 11:45 ET • 4 min read

MLB

Match starts: 2 hrs
ATH
48 %
SEA
52 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Nick Kurtz o1.5  Total Bases (-130) Nick Kurtz o1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Read Analysis
Athletics Nick Kurtz MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. A's 1B Nick Kurtz during an MLB game.

The Seattle Mariners (56-50) head to Sacramento for a three-game series with the Athletics (46-62) beginning Monday night. 

The Athletics just swept the Astros in four games, and they have the hottest hitter in the MLB in Nick Kurtz.

My Mariners vs. Athletics predictions and MLB picks are looking at the rookie’s total bases prop for Monday, July 28.

Mariners vs Athletics prediction

My Mariners vs Athletics best bet: Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 total bases (-130 at Caesars)

There are expected to be runs aplenty in tonight’s game between the Seattle Mariners and the Athletics. The total is priced up to 10 on a warm night (88 degrees at first pitch) with winds of 6-10 mph blowing out to center field. 

Seattle has cashed the Over in 15 of its last 20 games on the road, while the Athletics have trended to the Over at home all season (28-21-2 O/U). 

One player who should be expected to contribute offensively for the home side is star first baseman Nick Kurtz. The rookie sensation made history on Friday night, going 6-for-6 with four home runs.

The performance hardly came out of nowhere. The Wake Forest product has been among the most effective hitters in the sport, posting a 184 wRC+ and .309/.378/.683 slash line at just 22 years old.

Luis Castillo gets the call for Seattle. The veteran has struggled against lefties (.277/.358/.441) and on the road (4.74 ERA), so it’s a fine spot for Kurtz after a rest day on Sunday. 

Kurtz demolishes right-handed pitching (224 wRC+) and has recorded 2+ total bases in nine of his last 10 games.

Caesars QuickPick: Our Mariners vs Athletics same-game parlay (SGP)

Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 total bases

Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 total bases

Luis Castillo 6+ strikeouts

Cal Raleigh has bopped a home run in two consecutive games, moving his league-best total to 41 home runs on the season. The switch-hitting catcher is better from the right-handed side (225 wRC+) and faces left-hander JP Sears (5.01 home ERA).

Castillo has found something lately with the swing-and-miss, recording 6+ strikeouts in each of his last four starts despite failing to do so in 13 of his first 17 outings.

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Mariners vs Athletics odds

Mariners vs Athletics live odds

Mariners vs Athletics opening odds

  • Moneyline: Seattle -126 | A's +114
  • Run line: Seattle -1.5 | A's +1.5
  • Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10

Odds courtesy of Caesars.

Mariners vs Athletics trend

Nick Kurtz has recorded 2+ total bases in nine of his last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Athletics.

How to watch Mariners vs Athletics and game info

Location Sutter Health Park, West Sacramento, CA
Date Monday, 7-28-2025
First pitch 10:05 p.m. ET
TV RSNW, NBCSCA
Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo
(7-6, 3.30 ERA)
Athletics starting pitcher JP Sears
(7-8, 4.98 ERA)

Mariners vs Athletics latest injuries

Mariners vs Athletics weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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