It’s a battle at the top of the AL West, as the Seattle Mariners are in Houston to open a four-game set against the Astros.
Our Mariners vs Astros predictions have Seattle getting off to a good start against a Houston side that’s just been treading water lately.
Check our free MLB picks for Thursday, May 22, below.
Mariners vs Astros prediction
My Mariners vs Astros best bet: Mariners moneyline (-132 at FanDuel)
The Seattle Mariners are coming off a 6-5 win over the Chicago White Sox. The five runs they surrendered equaled the total runs they’d allowed in the previous five games, allowing exactly one run in each.
That helps an offense that ranks sixth in the majors at 4.85 runs per contest, while the team ERA drops to a nice 3.62, now ranking just outside the Top 10.
George Kirby will be making his first start of the year after being shut down with shoulder inflammation on March 7.
Kirby will work on a pitch count of around 75-80, and we’ll see if his control is still there. He walked just 3% of batters faced in 2024, which ranked No. 1 among all qualified starters.
The Houston Astros are as good a starting spot as any for the 27-year-old.
They have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games. At 25-24, they are 3.5 games back of the Mariners.
The offense is a problem, as the Astros are tied for 25th in runs scored at 3.54 per contest.
They haven’t helped out a pitching staff that ranks seventh with a 3.48 ERA, holding opponents to a 1.14 WHIP and .213 average, both ranking second in baseball.
After missing two full years due to various injuries, Lance McCullers Jr. is back and will make his fourth start of the year. Last time out, he went a season-best four innings, scattering four hits with no earned runs and two strikeouts.
The overall numbers haven't been pretty, though, as he has allowed seven earned runs in eight innings. He still has a short leash and could be pulled quickly if things get out of hand.
Seattle took two of three from Houston earlier this season and has won four of the last six head-to-head matchups.
The Mariners have outscored them 31-19 in those contests, and that solid offense should be enough to get them a win in Kirby's season debut.
Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners moneyline
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases
George Kirby Under 4.5 strikeouts
Let’s build out an SGP with a couple of Mariners, starting with Julio Rodriguez, who mashed his ninth homer and drove in three runs in Wednesday’s win.
That gives him hits in 12 of his last 14 games. Rodriguez has also homered in two of his last three outings and has picked up at least two total bases in eight of 14.
We’ll wrap with Kirby, who pitched three condensed starts this year with Seattle’s minor-league team, going 10 innings, with two walks and 13 strikeouts.
It’s a lot to ask a guy who’s been on the shelf and on a pitch count to be ringing up batters — and Houston is Top 7 in fewest strikeouts per game — so we’ll take the Under on Kirby’s strikeout count in his debut.
Mariners vs Astros odds
Mariners vs Astros live odds
Mariners vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle -135 | Houston +115
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+130) | Houston +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Mariners vs Astros trend
The Over is just 3-5-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
How to watch Mariners vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, 5-22-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10X p.m. ET |
| TV | RSNW, SCHN |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (2024: 14-11, 3.53 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Lance McCullers Jr. (0-1, 7.88 ERA) |
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
