MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Wednesday, July 30

Rays SP Zack Littell has allowed 26 home runs in 2025, which only plays into Giancarlo Stanton's hands. The Yankees slugger headlines our favorite home run props on Wednesday, July 30.

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst
Jul 30, 2025 • 10:08 ET • 4 min read
Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton takes center stage with Aaron Judge sidelined.

It's a full slate with a ton of afternoon games gracing the MLB schedule, and we've singled out a trio of home run picks.

Today’s MLB player props analysis will highlight Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Josh Bell, and, once again, Giancarlo Stanton on Wednesday, July 30. 

Best MLB home run props today

  • Blue Jays Guerrero (+280)
  • Nationals Bell (+500)
  • Yankees Stanton (+240)
  • 💲 +7652 parlay💲

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HR picks for July 30

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+280 at DraftKings)

We’re targeting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. again today because it’s impossible to ignore his track record against Baltimore Orioles starter Dean Kremer. He’s 11-for-31 with five home runs off the right-hander, who owns a 4.23 ERA and has allowed 16 bombs in 21 outings. 

Guerrero has two long balls in his last five games, taking his total to 15. Sure, that’s rather low for a player like Vladdy, but he still has massive power. The slugger can go deep at any given moment. Plus, 11 of his homers are off righties. 

The Toronto Blue Jays just lost a doubleheader to the O’s on Tuesday. They need to bounce back today, and Guerrero must do his part.

Josh Bell (+500 at DraftKings)

Houston Astros today rookie Ryan Gusto hasn’t had much success since coming up to the Majors, posting a 5.18 ERA while allowing 13 home runs in 23 appearances. 

Washington Nationals 1B/DH Josh Bell has smacked 13 long balls this year, and nine have come on the road. He’s also terrorized right-handed hurlers, going deep 12 times. Meanwhile, Gusto has surrendered 10 home runs to left-handed hitters. 

Giancarlo Stanton (+240 at DraftKings)

Giancarlo Stanton got a rest day on Tuesday, but he’ll be back in the New York Yankees lineup today. Since returning from the IL, he’s gone deep seven times in just over 100 at-bats while hitting .275. With Aaron Judge injured, the Bronx Bombers need even more out of Stanton, especially from a power standpoint. He’s certainly capable. 

The slugger has left the yard three times in his previous six appearances and has at least one hit in four consecutive games. Six of his bombs have occurred against right-handed pitchers, and the Tampa Bay Rays send Zack Littell to the mound. 

While his ERA is respectable, Littell has surrendered a mind-boggling 26 home runs in only 21 starts this season. Eighteen have happened on the road, and 14 have come against right-handed hitters. 

Today’s HR parlay

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Josh Bell

Giancarlo Stanton

Today’s most popular HR bets

  1. Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks
  2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
  3. Kyle Stowers, Marlins

Betting info courtesy of DraftKings

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications. He's currently a senior editor at ClutchPoints and has published work for numerous betting websites in the past. 

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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