It’s a quiet slate across the Majors, but I’ve still found home run value.
My MLB player props analysis is bullish on Bryce Harper, Julio Rodriguez, and Juan Soto going yard on Thursday, September 11.
Best MLB home run props today
Harper (+506)
Rodriguez (+473)
Soto (+376)- 💲 +14798 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Bryce Harper
The Philadelphia Phillies will be looking to complete the sweep today against the New York Mets, and Bryce Harper has certainly done his part over the last two games. He homered on Wednesday and also finished with a pair of hits on Tuesday.
Harper is 6-for-17 against David Peterson with a round-tripper. The slugger is batting .299 at home and has gone deep 14 times at Citizens Bank Park as well.
While a lefty-lefty matchup rarely favors a hitter, Harper has a .270 average versus southpaws, including nine bombs this year.
HR Prop #2: Julio Rodriguez
The Seattle Mariners continue to chase the Houston Astros in the AL West, and they will need Julio Rodriguez to keep raking. He’s off to a torrid start to September, batting .282 with four home runs and 12 RBI. That includes a two-homer game last week against the Atlanta Braves.
J-Rod will be looking forward to tonight's matchup against Los Angeles Angels SP Jose Soriano, considering he’s 6-for-12 lifetime with a pair of round-trippers. Soriano has only allowed 12 bombs this year, but it’s hard to ignore Julio's track record.
The majority of his power has come against righties, with 20 coming in similar matchups. Rodriguez has four homers versus the Halos in 2025, too.
HR Prop #3: Juan Soto
The Mets could use another banner game from Juan Soto, who finished 3-for-5 on Wednesday with a homer. He’s now left the yard 39 times this season, and I’m predicting No. 40 in the rubber match.
Soto is 6-for-17 in his career against Jesus Luzardo. He’s gone deep nine times versus left-handed hurlers and isalso batting .400 in September with four long balls. Soto has stepped it up when facing the Phils in ‘25, smacking three home runs and batting .273.
Today’s HR parlay
Bryce Harper
Julio Rodriguez
Juan Soto
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners
- Nick Castellanos, Phillies
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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