The Division Series begins today, October 4, with four games on the postseason schedule. My MLB player props analysis for the home run market will include Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez, and Kerry Carpenter.
Best MLB home run props today
Aaron Judge
Teoscar Hernandez
Kerry CarpenterMake your HR plays at DraftKings
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HR Prop #1: Aaron Judge
The New York Yankees take on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 today, and they will be looking to their best player to make some noise.
Aaron Judge performed well in the AL Wild Card Series, going 4-for-11. While he didn’t homer, that could change this afternoon.
The Jays send Kevin Gausman to the mound, and Judge is 17-for-48 against him with six home runs. That’s a very impressive track record, and Gausman does have trouble with the long ball at times — giving up 21 this season across 32 starts.
Judge has also clubbed three home runs vs. Toronto in 2025 while hitting over .300.
HR Prop #2: Teoscar Hernandez
The Los Angeles Dodgers roll into the NLDS with confidence after taking down the Cincinnati Reds. Teoscar Hernandez was brilliant in the Wild Card Series, going 4-for-10 with two home runs.
He also smacked a pair of round-trippers in Game 1 to help propel the defending World Series champions to a 10-5 victory.
The Phils hand Cristopher Sanchez the baseball in Game 1, and Hernandez has lit him up in the past, going 5-for-12 against him with two bombs. Although Hernandez has only cracked six homers this season off left-handed pitchers, he’s clearly got confidence with Sanchez on the mound.
The veteran will leave the ballpark for the third time in this postseason.
HR Prop #3: Kerry Carpenter
There’s no question everyone turns it up a notch in the playoffs, especially pitchers. However, Kerry Carpenter’s history against Seattle Mariners starter George Kirby is too solid to overlook in the series opener today.
The Detroit Tigers slugger, who had 26 homers in the regular season, is 4-for-8 lifetime vs Kirby with four long balls.
While Carpenter didn’t go deep in the Wild Card Series against the Cleveland Guardians, he was 4-for-10. The youngster comes into this series hot, and you better believe he’ll be biting at the bit to face Kirby. I mean, after all, every hit off him has gone a long way.
Kirby may try to pitch around Carpenter, but one mistake could result in him making the righty pay.
Today’s HR parlay
Aaron Judge
Teoscar Hernandez
Kerry Carpenter
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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