We head into the final days of the regular season, with lots at stake across the majors.
My MLB player props in the home run market for Friday, September 26 include Pete Crow-Armstrong, Shohei Ohtani, and Matt Chapman.
Best MLB home run props today
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Crow-Armstrong (+426) -
Ohtani (+245) -
Chapman (+379) - 💲 +8592 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been struggling in September, but today’s matchup has the potential to help him break out and find his stroke again ahead of the playoffs.
The Chicago Cubs will face the St. Louis Cardinals, who send Miles Mikolas to the mound. He allowed six home runs and eight earned runs to the Cubbies earlier this season, and PCA has done no wrong against him.
The Chicago slugger is 6-for-7 lifetime with four home runs off Mikolas. Crow-Armstrong has now smacked 29 bombs on the year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he reached No. 30 this afternoon at Wrigley. He’s also hitting .275 at home.
Mikolas is a nightmare on the road, with an ERA over 6.00. PCA’s confidence against Mikolas will be high, and it may just result in a long-awaited round-tripper.
HR Prop #2: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers finish their regular season with a three-game set against the Seattle Mariners. The Japanese superstar has smacked 54 home runs this season, and he just went deep on Thursday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Ohtani is batting .306 this month with six home runs. He’s 6-for-17 overall against George Kirby, who takes the bump for the M’s this evening. That includes one long ball. Ohtani has 40 homers off right-handed pitchers, and Kirby has given up 14 bombs this year.
The reigning NL MVP has also left the yard 25 times on the road.
HR Prop #3: Matt Chapman
The San Francisco Giants take on the Colorado Rockies tonight, and German Marquez gets the call. He’s having a terrible season, and has been hit around more often than not.
Matt Chapman’s track record against him is impressive, going 5-for-12. Three of those hits have been round-trippers.
Chapman has 21 home runs overall, and he’s left the ballpark three times in September. This contest takes place at Oracle Park, where Chapman has clubbed 12 bombs in 2025. He’s also done most of his damage off right-handers, smacking 18 homers.
Marquez has allowed 21 HRs in 25 starts, and has an ERA over 6.00.
Today’s HR parlay
Pete Crow-Armstrong home run
Shohei Ohtani home run
Matt Chapman home run
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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