Today’s MLB player props analysis will include sluggers Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Joc Pederson as we dig into home run predictions for Friday, August 15.
Best MLB home run props today
Manny Machado (+330)- Fernando Tatis Jr (+340)
Joc Pederson (+475)- 💲 +9100 parlay💲
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HR picks for August 15
Manny Machado (+330 at DraftKings)
Manny Machado continues to rake for the first-place San Diego Padres, hitting .296 with 20 bombs on the year. Tonight is the start of a huge series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Machado will be looking forward to the matchup with Clayton Kershaw on the hill.
The third baseman has had nothing but success against the future Hall of Famer, batting .310 (13-for-42) lifetime with four home runs. Although Kershaw has only allowed six long balls in 14 outings this year, five of them are off the bats of right-handed hitters.
Machado has 10 homers on the road, and this rivalry always brings a different level of motivation for him, having played for the Dodgers for a short period of time. His power output against lefties is also impressive, taking them deep 10 times in 2025.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+340 at DraftKings)
Both Padres stars going deep in the series opener? You better believe it. Machado isn’t the only one who has torn the cover off the baseball with Kershaw on the hill. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also batting .304 versus the southpaw (7-for-23). Four of those hits have left the ballpark.
Tatis Jr. has just 17 round-trippers so far, and although he’s yet to go deep in August, the superstar is red-hot at the moment. He has four multi-hit games in his last five contests. Tatis Jr. will already be feeling confident at the dish, and that becomes even more evident with Kershaw facing him due to the past success.
Yes, Tatis has only two bombs off lefties and five homers on the road, but he’s in great form at the moment, and this rivalry always has more at stake. He’ll stay hot tonight and potentially leave the yard.
Joc Pederson (+475 at DraftKings)
It’s been a rough campaign for Joc Pederson with the Texas Rangers. Once a guy who smacked 25+ home runs on a regular basis, Pederson has just four bombs this year to go along with a .150 average. He doesn’t always play a ton, but Pederson has been getting more starts lately. He’s also batting .296 in August, going deep twice.
The main reason I’m liking Pederson at +400 odds tonight is due to his success against Toronto Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt. He’s 5-for-8 lifetime with two round-trippers. That will certainly land him a start tonight in the lineup, and Pederson has a hit in back-to-back games.
All four of his long balls are off right-handed hurlers as well.
Today’s HR parlay
Manny Machado
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Joc Pederson
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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