Everybody loves a long ball — but we love them even more when there's a chance to make some sweet, sweet cash off them, which is exactly what we're looking to do with FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
How it works is that every Tuesday, you place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
The MLB schedule today features a game at Coors Field... but (believe it or not) I'm looking elsewhere in terms of MLB odds as the best matchups to target, along with some good MLB player props and the best value for the game based on FanDuel's MLB home run odds against other major operators.
So let's go deep with the best FanDuel Dinger Tuesday plays for May 23, 2023.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday best values
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ball Park, 6:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 1.15 | 8.7 | 39.0 | 13.6 | 39.0 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 0.74 | 9.5 | 27.5 | 4.5 | 34.6 |
Hitters to target
Ignore the low rates for Cincinnati Reds' righty Ashcraft — he's in a major rut right now, with three straight poor outings that have seen him give up three long balls in his last 12 1/3 innings.
His expected batting average, strikeout rate, and whiff rate are all poor, while he sports reverse platoon splits as he's been hammered by right-handed hitters.
There are a few options for the St. Louis Cardinals, who are third in MLB in homers in May, mainly Paul DeJong (+340), who is tied for the team lead over the last two weeks with four HR vs. righties and a 57.9% fly-ball rate, as well as Nolan Arenado (hitting .350 with three HR vs. RHP over that span) at +360, as well as Willson Contreras (+390). If you do want to target a lefty, Nolan Gorman (+290) has been crushing lefties over the last 14 days, with a .414 average, .517 ISO, and a 46.7% FB rate.
On the other side, Wainwright has given up just two home runs in three starts, but those two dingers came in his sole outing on the road, and Great American Ball Park is arguably the most homer-friendly park in the Bigs.
The St. Louis Cardinals veteran also measures among the worst pitchers in the league in xBA, barrel rate, whiff rate, and fastball velocity. He also has a career 1.33 HR/9 at GABP, and while everybody has hit him hard so far, lefties have done more damage, so you would be wise to target Jake Fraley (.389 vs. righties over the last two weeks, with three HR and a 46.7% FB rate) at +450.
There aren't many lefty (or overall) reliable power options otherwise, but Spencer Steer (+450) is worth a look, with a 50% fly-ball rate and .275 average against righties during the last 14 days.
Best betting value: Jake Fraley (+390)
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers (American Family Field, 7:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 2.35 | 20.0 | 39.2 | 9.8 | 35.3 |
| Colin Rea | 1.74 | 18.2 | 36.7 | 6.6 | 41.8 |
Hitters to target
France has given up four dingers in his last two starts (10 1/3 IP) for the Houston Astros, with a poor barrel rate, poor strikeout rate, and a fastball that has been getting absolutely hammered.
The righty also has reverse platoon splits, leaving Owen Miller (+900) the hottest Milwaukee Brewers player in that category, with a .414 average and .345 ISO vs. righties over the last two weeks, while Willy Adames, who is second on the team in HR this year, is an option at (+420), he's hitting just 2-for-30 vs. RHP over this span.
You can also still fall back to reliable lefties Rowdy Tellez (+300) and Christian Yelich (+520), who are hitting .320 and .391 (with five combined HR) over the last two weeks against righties.
Yordan Alvarez (.370, two HR, .370 ISO vs. RHP over last two weeks), is the best Houston hitter to target and is available at +240, as Rea gives up home runs to both sides of the plate and has allowed at least one long ball in five of his six starts.
We're not very confident in Kyle Tucker (+370), who is ice-cold right now, but we do like Martin Maldonado (+680), who is hitting .360 with two HR and a 47.1% fly-ball rate against righties in the last two weeks, while Mauricio Dubon is currently OTB but is hitting .417 with a 45% FB rate against RHP during this span, should his odds get added.
Best betting value: Owen Miller (+900)
Last week's recap:
- LAA at BAL: Three HR
- CIN at COL: Two HR
- Game with most HR: TB/NYM (Six HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
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