The Philadelphia Phillies return home to host the Cleveland Guardians for a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park starting on July 26.
Philadelphia is just 2-4 since the All-Star break, with its bats quiet to start the second half, which is one of the reasons why my Guardians vs. Phillies predictions are backing the Under tonight. Get all the details in my MLB picks ahead.
Guardians vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Cleveland Guardians' starter Ben Lively will get the nod tonight, sporting an 8-6 record with a 3.57 ERA. The Philadelphia Phillies will respond with All-Star Cristopher Sanchez (7-5, 2.97 ERA).
That’s a recipe for a low-scoring game on its own, and then we have both teams struggling offensively.
The Guardians have scored 17 runs in seven games since the All-Star break, and seven of those came in their first game back. Since then, they’ve mustered just 10 runs over their last six.
The Phillies have an eerily similar problem, also scoring seven runs in their first game after the break, but have since put up just 16 runs in their last five outings.
Lively has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 17 starts, and Cleveland has the best bullpen ERA in the league at 2.50. Sanchez has also been stingy with two earned runs or fewer in 14 of 19 starts, but Philadelphia's pen has been a bit shakier with a 4.00 ERA on the year.
Either way, both of these teams are searching for offense and face off against strong pitchers tonight. This should be a low-scoring game to open the series in the City of Brotherly Love.
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Guardians vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Phillies moneyline
Trea Turner 1+ hit
It should be a low-scoring game, but the Phillies should be able to prevail at home. They’re 37-16 in Citizens Bank Park, while the Guardians are just 28-26 on the road (33-15 at home).
Trea Turner is batting .338 on the season and has a hit in 52 of 63 games overall, including 25 of 30 games since returning from the IL in June.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Phillies odds
Guardians vs Phillies live odds
Guardians vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-150) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +154 | Philadelphia -185
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Guardians vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Philadelphia Phillies odds are between -170 and -188 as of Friday afternoon after opening around -185.
- The Cleveland Guardians odds are as high as +158 (FanDuel) after opening at +154.
- The total opened at a flat eight and has remained there across most of the MLB odds board.
Guardians vs Phillies trend
The Guardians have hit the team total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.60 Units / 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Phillies.
Guardians vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (8-6, 3.57 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (7-5, 2.97 ERA) |
Guardians vs Phillies latest injuries
Guardians vs Phillies weather
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