The San Diego Padres still sit two games out of first place in the National League West after splitting the first two games of their mid-week series with the San Francisco Giants, and San Francisco itself is clinging to life with 6 ½ games to make up to reach the final wild-card spot.
After a topsy-turvy start to this series, we’ll explain in my Giants vs. Padres predictions why both pitchers may shine in a critical game down the stretch for both sides.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Wednesday, August 20.
Giants vs Padres prediction
Giants vs Padres best bet: Under 4.5 — First five (-105)
It’s just not happening right now for JP Sears. Following a tough few months with the Athletics, where he wore a 4.38 ERA, the left-hander was shipped off to the San Diego Padres at the deadline, where he debuted with five earned runs on 10 hits and a walk against the Arizona Diamondbacks at the start of the month.
He was sent down to make a start at Triple-A, where he allowed just two runs on six hits and a walk over five innings, but he crucially allowed another home run, doing so in his sixth straight start between the two levels.
Sears now owns a poor .457 Expected Slugging this season with continued stagnation in his pedestrian strikeout rate, and as an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s going to need to utilize his friendly home park to see results.
Well, his park will help him on Wednesday, but his opponent should help him even more. The San Francisco Giants are not only second-worst in wRC+ to lefties this season, but are at a severe disadvantage versus fly-ball arms. The Giants own just a .138 Isolated Power in the last two weeks as well, and while their biggest issue has been a load of strikeouts, they’ve also hit just .219 and have struggled to produce when the ball is in play.
San Diego, on the other side of the coin, remains hot at the dish with a top-10 wRC+ over the last two weeks, but could meet their maker in Landen Roupp. As a ground-ball pitcher with a solid .253 Expected Batting Average relative to his archetype, the Padres should play right into Roupp’s hands as he finds merciful outs on contact against a team that is hitting a handsome .252 over the last 14 days.
Without much power coming from San Diego, Roupp shouldn’t stand as a liability in this game, and considering he’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher, his powers shouldn’t be sapped by this disciplined offense.
I am a huge fan of playing both pitchers here, but like last night, I’m just a little hesitant to trust this Padres bullpen after it was once again pushed somewhat hard on Tuesday with three of its four best relievers pitching.
Giants vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Roupp isn’t a strikeout maestro by any means, with a 21.6% punchout rate on the season, and San Diego rarely strikes out, but this number is still too low.
The righty has not only struck out four or more in both games versus the Padres, but he’s also begun to transform into more of a strikeout pitcher in recent months. He brought his whiff rate all the way up to a solid 36.7% in his last outing versus the Tampa Bay Rays, and last month he struck out 21 in 20 frames. He’s making clear improvements in this area, which is enough for me to say he’ll hit this number for a seventh time in his last eight.
I also love Xander Bogaerts here, who is beginning to heat up. He mashes lefties to the tune of a .300 average, and in hitting .266 versus fly-ballers, he has the second-most hits on the team in that split. The veteran is also heating up a bit with a hit in six of his last eight games, including a double last night, making me pretty confident he’ll rack another one on Wednesday.
Giants vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco +122 | San Diego -145
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-169) | San Diego -1.5 (+143)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Giants vs Padres trend
The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres.
How to watch Giants vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, August 20, 2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSBA, SDPA |
| Giants starting pitcher | Landon Roupp (7-6, 3.45 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | JP Sears (7-10, 5.12 ERA) |
Giants vs Padres latest injuries
Giants vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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