The San Francisco Giants are still very much in the mix for the final wild-card spot in the National League, and now they’ll meet a San Diego Padres team that is peaking at the right time and narrowly behind in the NL West.
We’ll explain in our Giants vs. Padres predictions why both the Giants’ offense and their starting pitcher should be in for a world of trouble, and where the best spot to bet on the home team is.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Tuesday, August 19.
Giants vs Padres prediction
Giants vs Padres best bet: Padres -0.5 — First five
Yes, the San Francisco Giants are just 5 ½ games out of a playoff spot, but you wouldn’t know it by the arms they’re running out at times. Kei-Wei Teng is just 20 or so innings into his big-league career, and despite an incredible showing in Triple-A isn’t exactly a pitcher we can trust at the moment.
Teng posted an incredible 37.9% strikeout rate in 54 innings down on the farm this year, but he managed just a 3.67 ERA as his many issues have persisted. He’s very vulnerable to the walk with a free-pass rate well over 10% in his minor-league career, and he’s walked eight to just eight punchouts so far this season in 10 big-league innings.
That’s really the thing I’d like to harp on — this is still a very bad pitcher with a brutal home run-to-fly ball ratio who saved himself with other-worldly strikeout numbers down in Triple-A this year. If we know one thing about inexperienced pitchers, it’s that meeting more disciplined teams at this level almost always creates a multi-year waiting period for strikeouts to translate in the bigs, and in this specific matchup it’s going to be even more noticeable.
The San Diego Padres are the most disciplined team in the league, running an excellent 10.5% walk rate in the last two weeks, next to a very low 16.7% strikeout rate, and while they don’t have a ton of power inside their large ballpark, their .153 ISO in that span is a good mark for them.
On the flip side, Nick Pivetta has been excellent even if he’s still coughing up too many home runs. It’s only natural for an extreme fly-ball pitcher to do so, but pitching in San Diego, he’s been able to limit opponents to just a .232 Expected Batting Average.
What we love is that not only does the xBA continue to fall as the months go by, but he’s once again tidied up his issues with walks; his free pass rate sits under 7% in the last two seasons, which is well better than average.
As he’s done good work in that area, and continued striking out hitters at a well-above average rate, Pivetta has been a nightmare to face — particularly in a pitcher’s park. San Francisco is striking out in nearly 26% of its plate appearances over the last two weeks as it continues to struggle for contact, and it’s walked under 7% of the time to boot.
On top of that, they’re running the third-worst OPS in the league versus fly ball pitchers, sitting near the top 10 in the reverse split for the majority of the season. This is as bad a matchup as you can get for the Giants, and on the flip side, it’s a brutal spot for Teng against this offense.
With San Diego’s bullpen getting worked hard in the last two weeks, we’ll go with the Padres over the first five innings.
Giants vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
This one is a little tricky to solve without a ton of great offerings. Pivetta struck out five over 6 2/3 innings versus this same team last week, but he’s set at 6.5 punchouts here. Even in a good matchup, the whiff and strikeout rates have been dropping a bit, so I’m scared off that number.
In addition to that, Teng’s walk issues will leave a ton of guys liable to take fewer at-bats, which is going to make total bases a real sweat.
Instead, I like playing some guys to score runs here. In the case of Ramon Laureano, he’s now scored 11 times in just 16 games since the break, and as someone who had an expected hit and a walk versus Teng last week, I’m quite confident he’ll get on base and use his speed to come around once.
I’m going to opt for Fernando Tatis’ combo prop instead to get some beefier odds, considering he’s going to come up a bunch in this one and should comfortably find himself on base multiple times. He did have a hit against Teng last week, and with how well Laureano, Freddy Fermin, and Jake Cronenworth have hit at the bottom of the order, he should have plenty of RBI chances.
Giants vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco +192 | San Diego -233
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-115) | San Diego -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Giants vs Padres trend
The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres.
How to watch Giants vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, August 19, 2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Bay Area, Padres TV |
| Giants starting pitcher | Kai-Wei Teng (-12, 9.90 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (12-4, 2.87 ERA) |
Giants vs Padres latest injuries
Giants vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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