Giants vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Adding by Subtraction in Win Column

The regular season nears its conclusion as two NL West foes meet in San Diego.

The Padres have clinched a wild card and are headed to the playoffs for a three-game series in the first round. This is a critical game in determining playoff seeding, however, as the Padres are only one game above the Phillies for the No. 5 seed. If San Diego were to lose and Philadelphia were to win its game vs. Houston, the Phillies would grab the No. 5 seed with one game left to play as they hold the regular season tiebreaker.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres on Tuesday, October 4. 

Giants vs Padres best odds

Giants vs Padres picks and predictions

What will the Padres’ motivation be to win this game? The Padres hold a one-game lead over the Phillies for the No. 5 seed with two games left to play, although Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker. The No. 5 seed matches up with the No. 4 seed New York Mets, which holds a 98-61 record and a +149 run differential. The No. 6 seed gets the NL Central champions and No. 3 seed St. Louis Cardinals, who are 92-68 with a +136 run differential. 

Don’t get me wrong, both the Mets and Cardinals are good baseball clubs that will prove a difficult test come the postseason. Still, it’s difficult to deny that some teams would wish to avoid playing the Mets in a three-game series in the Wild Card round. They’ve been one of the best teams in MLB all season long and were only relegated to a wild card because they reside in the NL East with the Braves (100-60), the reigning World Series champs.

Do the Padres really want to run the risk of having their season coming to an untimely end via Jacob deGrom & Co. in a short series? Of course, their team would never admit it and they have to believe they could beat any team, anytime, anywhere, but it’s fair to question what the reward is for winning these next two games against the Giants. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres rest a few key pieces of the lineup. They get a tough test here against Carlos Rodon, who holds a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn’t gotten as much attention as some other star pitchers as the Giants are having a lost season, but he’s an elite southpaw. 

Rodon gives the Giants a pitching advantage over Sean Manaea, who has an unseemly 5.15 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. With the pitching advantage going to San Francisco and motivational concerns for San Diego, I’m jumping on the underdog.

My best bet: Giants moneyline (+136 at WynnBet)

Giants vs Padres moneyline analysis

If the Padres fall to the No. 6 seed, they would arguably get a more manageable first-round opponent in the Cardinals. However, they wouldn’t be able to avoid the Dodgers as the NLDS is determined by high and low seed — meaning the No. 6 seed, should they advance, would sure to be matched up with the high seed — the No. 1 Los Angeles Dodgers.

Either way, the road to glory would need to go through the best teams in the land, but the Dodgers’ run differential of +322 is far superior to the Braves’ mark of +182. Should the Padres choose to gun for the No. 5 seed to leave the option open of facing Atlanta in Round 2, the motivation angle in this spot could be put into question. 

Either way, the Giants will have a massive starting pitching advantage on Tuesday as Rodon is an elite arm while Manaea looks like a postseason liability at this point. 

The Padres scored seven runs in the eightth inning in Game 1 to secure a 7-4 victory, so it’s always possible that a moribund Giants bullpen blows yet another game in Game 2.

Giants vs Padres Over/Under analysis

Rodon has been a dominant force for San Francisco this season, and he’s in line for a productive outing on Tuesday against a Padres lineup that will likely be missing a few key pieces for the postseason. Even if San Diego fields its full lineup, Rodon’s 2.25 FIP and 3.8% barrel rate are positive indicators for success.

While Manaea’s numbers aren’t great, he gets a favorable matchup against a Giants team that has been struggling at the plate against southpaws. San Francisco ranks just 26th in both wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of September while striking out at a massive 29.2% rate.

Manaea has found a groove as late, too, surrendering only six earned runs total across his last four starts. His struggles have mostly come on the road (6.16 ERA) while he’s been somewhat effective at Petco Park (3.93 ERA).

These teams had a combined zero runs heading into the bottom of the eighth inning last night before San Diego exploded for seven runs. The Giants then answered with four of their own in the top of the ninth to make the final score (7-4) more high-scoring than it seemed like it would be for most of the night.

All in all, this seems like an Under spot.

Giants vs Padres trend to know

The Giants are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres

Giants vs Padres game info

Starting pitchers

Carlos Rodon (14-8, 2.88 ERA): Rodon has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in 2022. His 2.64 xERA and 2.25 FIP are both superb, and it’s the second straight year in which both of those numbers have been below 2.70. He makes a ton of batters whiff (33.4% strikeout rate) while limiting hard contact (3.8% barrel rate).

Sean Manaea (7-9, 5.15 ERA): It’s been a season to forget for the southpaw. His ERA has crept above 5.00 for the first time in his career, although his 4.14 xERA and 4.65 FIP aren’t quite as ghastly. He’s issuing more free passes than normal with a 7.5% walk rate the highest it’s been since 2017, and it’s not like his 23% strikeout rate is elite. 

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