The San Francisco Giants are in hot pursuit of one of the final wild card spots in the National League, but their division rivals stand in the way of glory as we hit the penultimate weekend of the season.
Can Sean Manaea win Friday’s battle of the lefties? Let’s break it all down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Dodgers on September 22.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to start Caleb Ferguson on Friday, but he’ll merely be the opener for left-hander Ryan Yarbrough. The southpaw has been dynamite since his trade to the Dodgers, posting a 2.90 ERA across 31 innings.
After his xBA ballooned to .303 in the month of July, Yarbrough’s brought that figure down to .243 since joining L.A. He’s been using his cutter and changeup more at the expense of his sinker, and with the increased usage has come much better-expected results across the board. It seems L.A. has cracked the code with the once-promising Tampa Bay Ray.
On the other side, Sean Manaea finally looks comfortable again as a starter. The big lefty owns a 3.86 ERA in three starts since being removed from the bullpen as a bulk reliever, and he’ll be making a huge start for a San Francisco Giants club that is looking to keep their playoff hopes alive. The most important thing here is that Manaea has allowed just two homers in three starts, along with only two free passes.
Both pitchers have been shoving in their new roles, and I think it’s worth grabbing the Under on Friday considering how they’ve been trending.
My best bet: Under 9 (-118 at FanDuel)
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Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Under 9 (-118)
Dodgers moneyline (-168)
Sean Manaea Under 3.5 strikeouts (+116)
The Giants and Dodgers have both been running hot at the dish of late, so it’s definitely a bit tough to bite on some strikeout props. On top of that, we can’t even get pitcher props on Yarbrough since he’s not even the listed starter tonight.
We’ll have to be a little creative instead, so first we'll combine the full game Under with the Under on Manaea’s strikeouts. The lefty has been effective in three appearances as a starter, but he’s only struck out nine over the span of 14 innings. On top of that, the Dodgers boast a Top 10 strikeout rate against lefties in baseball and are under 21% for the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, Yarbrough has been considerably better than Manaea in the past two months, and the Giants have a strikeout rate of just under 26% against lefties. They have really struggled in that split, carrying a 92 wRC+ for the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
So, what do we know about this game?
We know both pitchers should probably perform a bit better than what the market is expecting. Yarbrough has also found his groove again with the Dodgers and is now going up against a team that has a run value of barely 0 against cutters.
Because of that, the Dodgers and Under are certainly the play.
Only 10% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings have been placed on the Giants, with just 5% of the handle coming in on San Francisco. While 54% of the bets are on the Over, a commanding 59% of the money wagered on the total has come in on the Under.
The big money is coming in on the Under, while most of the cash is on the Dodgers as well. L.A. is a public side, but one which sharps seem aligned with.
Trend to know
The Under is 43-30-2 in San Francisco's home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
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Giants vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, September 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Sean Manaea (6-6, 4.82 ERA): The veteran southpaw allowed three runs on eight hits at Coors Field in his last start, striking out just one batter. Manaea has yet to complete six innings in a start since being moved to the rotation, but also hasn't surrendered more than three runs in a start.
Caleb Ferguson (7-3, 2.56 ERA): The left-handed reliever last took the bump three days ago for the Dodgers, coughing up a solo homer as his only hit. For the season, Ferguson owns a 2.56 ERA with a solid 3.46 xERA.
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