All-day baseball means full-slate coverage on Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Five MLB expert picks follow below, with two of our finest baseball minds eyeing opposite sides of tonight's Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners game.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: ATL/WSH u9.5 |
53% |
 Jon Metler: SEA ML |
45% |
 Neil Parker: BOS ML |
56% |
 Joe Osborne: KC ML |
51% |
 Dustin Saracini: DET ML |
48% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Braves at Nationals Under 9.5
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
This abbreviated two-game set saw 14 runs in yesterday's opener, but today's matchup doesn't deserve to have the same total.
The wind is blowing in, there is a slight chance of rain, and the Washington Nationals have the worst schedule spot of the week. The Nats will wrap up today's game and head to Los Angeles to open a series against the Dodgers on Friday. The Atlanta Braves also have a massive weekend series on deck against the Phillies, making this a perfect getaway game.
Grant Holmes has mostly seen closing totals of 8, 8.5, and 9, making 9.5 a long number for a pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA who has recorded scoreless outings in three of his last five starts.
Brad Lord isn't even as bad as he looks for this Under. He's been great since the All-Star break and will likely pitch only three innings, allowing a bridge reliever to get to Washington's high-leverage arms, all of whom are available.
This should close at 9. I love an afternoon getaway game.
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BravesVsn, Nationals.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Mariners moneyline
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
The venue is a major factor in how I handicap this matchup. If the game were being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, I'd view it much differently than I do at Fenway Park.
Left-hander Patrick Sandoval gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he relies heavily on his changeup to generate outs and induce ground balls. That approach could be problematic against the Seattle Mariners' right-handed bats, including Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Taylor Ward, who excel at driving pitches from left-handed pitchers with backspin into the gaps.
Sandoval's reliance on his off-speed stuff puts him in a difficult spot against this lineup, particularly at Fenway Park. Some of the fly balls that might die in Seattle's marine layer could turn into extra-base hits off the Green Monster in Boston.
The Mariners are trading at 45% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 50%, which is why I'm backing Seattle.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV, NESN
Neil Parker's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
The Mariners rank 29th in xwOBA with just 3.6 runs per game over the past 30 days, and starter Bryce Miller’s underlying numbers skyrocket away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
His home 2.52 xERA and 3.67 xFIP jump to 3.80 and 4.04 marks, respectively, and Miller has also surrendered a .346 wOBA and .239 ISO on the highway.
With the Red Sox ranking second in wOBA, fourth in ISO, and seventh in xwOBA while averaging 5.4 runs per game over the past 30 days, I’m happy to run counter to my colleague Jon Metler and back Boston to 57.4% this afternoon.
For more, check out Neil Parker's complete Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV, NESN
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Royals moneyline
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
Noah Cameron has been dominant in the second half, posting a 1.29 ERA across his last seven starts, with four scoreless outings.
He'll face a Miami Marlins lineup that's been awful vs. left-handed pitching, ranking 26th in OPS over the past month.
Eury Perez has shown cracks on the road and draws a Kansas City Royals offense that’s been one of baseball’s hottest both at home and against right-handed pitching.
Kansas City is also red-hot at home, where its won seven of its last eight. Add Miami’s inefficient bullpen and a fair price, and there’s plenty of ammo to pull the trigger on the Royals.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Marlins.TV, Royals.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Tigers moneyline
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
The Detroit Tigers need to bounce back after surrendering 26 runs across their first two against the Minnesota Twins, and they may get it with Dean Kremer on the mound for the home team.
Kremer has allowed a homer in three straight starts, and the Tigers have his number, owning a .303 xBA and .510 xSLG across 98 plate appearances.
Now that's a sample size we can get behind.
On the other side, Drew Anderson has been serviceable, owning a career-best 3.91 xERA and 34.1% chase rate. The Tigers are a live 'dog tonight trading at 48 cents, and I'd play them up to 52 at Polymarket.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: DSN, Twins.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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