The Tampa Bay Rays have pummeled teams at home all season long, posting a remarkably strong 47-24 record at Tropicana Field.
Facing a pitcher set to throw his first major-league innings of the season, my Mets vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks are banking on more of the same in today's series finale, with Tampa a significant home favorite on Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Who will win Mets vs Rays today: Tampa Bay Rays (60%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a clear pitching advantage this afternoon.
Griffin Jax held opponents to just one run in four of his last five starts before missing a month with an elbow injury, and posted a strong .264 xwOBA over his past six.
New York Mets right-hander Justin Hagenman recorded a 4.44 xFIP and 1.93 HR/9 over three minor-league starts during his ramp-up. He will have a difficult time jumping on a moving train against a Rays team that puts a ton of pressure on opposing arms with elite contact skills.
Back the Rays to 62%.
COVERS INTEL: The Rays lead the majors with a .281 batting average against right-handed pitchers over the last month.
Mets vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)
The first two games of this series featured eight runs or fewer, and I see another low-scoring game in the cards today.
Despite their recent improvements, the Mets are 27th in OPS vs. righties this season. Jax has sliced and diced the eight Bottom-10 opponents he has faced, posting a sparkling 2.17 ERA.
The Rays rank 24th in barrel percentage and 28th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching over the last month. They’re not producing much power, making it difficult to string together huge innings.
Play to 57%.
Mets vs Rays home run prediction: Junior Caminero (23%)
Junior Caminero hits lefties and righties well, but he has produced more power vs. the latter, with a .262 ISO.
Hagenman relied primarily on cutters, sliders, and sinkers when pitching in the majors last season. Caminero has a strong track record facing those pitches, recording an ISO of .225 or higher against each of them.
He enters play riding a 15-game hitting streak and is clearly seeing the ball very well. I want to ride the hot hand.
- ML/RL bets: 96-88, -11.76 units
- Over/Under bets: 94-84-6, -2.02 units
Mets vs Rays weather
This game will be played indoors.
Mets vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Mets 41% | Rays 60%
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (60%) | Rays -1.5 (42%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (47%) | Under 8.5 (55%)
Mets vs Rays trend
Tampa Bay has hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+8.75 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Rays.
How to watch Mets vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Rays.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | Justin Hagenman (2025: 0-1, 4.56 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Griffin Jax (6-9, 3.63 ERA) |
Mets vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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