It's a small seven-game MLB slate on Thursday, but one that's headlined by a massive National League matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves.
Our Covers experts bring you the best MLB picks on the board, including one for that much-anticipated battle between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale in Atlanta.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Royals moneyline |
-104 |
 Jon Metler: Dodgers moneyline |
+100 |
 Dustin Saracini: WAS/COL o9.5 |
-113 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Royals moneyline
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
The Royals failed to record their 10th straight win, but have a big edge today as a slight road dog in the series finale. This Blue Jays offense has been broken all year, and more than 21% of their wins have come while scoring three or fewer runs, like last night, and they could be giving up runs and not having the offense to make up for it.
Spencer Arrighetti lasted just 10 outs in his Jays debut and threw 61 pitches while giving up three runs. His bullpen is more than depleted. I really don't know who's going to be available today, as six bullpen arms threw more than 30 pitches yesterday or have thrown on back-to-back days.
It could be Arighetti to Simeon Woods Richardson for 21 outs, but SWR has thrown 21, 20, and 29 pitches in his last three appearances. The Jays don't have the arms to keep this a low-scoring affair and also have zero left-handed options out of the pen. I have this fair price at 56%.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Sportsnet
Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
This is about as close to appointment television as you can get, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Chris Sale in a matchup between two of the NL's best teams. The Braves are going for the sweep today, and I've been on the wrong side of their wins in this series, but I'm going back to the Dodgers on the moneyline. The Dodgers are trading at 50 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us enough of an edge to get back on the Dodgers.
Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but I think the swing paths of several Dodgers hitters give them a better chance to generate offense than the market is pricing in. Sale's sweeping slider can be a nightmare for hitters, but Mookie Betts' compact hands and Freddie Freeman's short, inside-out swing give this lineup the tools to handle his breaking stuff and generate just enough offense to get the job done.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Nationals/Rockies o9.5
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
How about some matinee baseball? And how about some early afternoon offense? That's exactly what we're looking at in this pitching matchup between the Rockies and Nationals. Gabriel Hughes, who comes into this one for Colorado having coughed up 22 runs across his last five starts, will be in tough against a team with the third-highest wRC+ in baseball coming off an embarrassing 13-1 loss.
It doesn't get better for Nats starter Jake Irvin, whose 45% hard-hit rate, 5.38 xERA, and .464 xSLG are among the worst in baseball. With a Washington bullpen that ran through five arms last night, this could get ugly quick. I'd play this up to 55 cents at Polymarket
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Rockies.TV/Nationals.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brewers -1.5 | -116 |
| Read analysis in our Brewers vs. Mets predictions | |
| Astros moneyline | +109 |
| Read analysis in our Astros vs. Yankees predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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