The Milwaukee Brewers are priced as massive -219 moneyline road favorites against the New York Mets tonight, with Jacob Misiorowski taking the hill. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field.
With Misiorowski continuing to deal and Milwaukee swinging it well, I'm backing the visitors in my Brewers vs. Mets prediction.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 27.
Who will win Brewers vs Mets today: Brewers -1.5 (-116)
Jacob Misiorowski is in excellent form, giving the Milwaukee Brewers a strong run line foundation tonight. The right-hander owns a 1.83 FIP across his last two outings, posting 9.00 K/9 while not allowing a home run.
He has also held opponents to a 21.9% hard-hit rate during that span. The New York Mets are in respectable offensive form, but Misiorowski already handled them once this season, tossing four innings of one-run ball in July.
Sean Manaea is the real separator. He has allowed five home runs across his last two appearances with an 8.59 xERA, and the Brewers own a 117 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Milwaukee has the starter edge and enough offense to create separation.
Play this pick up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Sean Manaea has surrendered an alarming 19.8% barrel rate in the last month, compared to his season mark of 11.3%. With the lefty making far too many mistakes, the Brewers lineup has a clear advantage.
Brewers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+114)
With a low total of 7.5, the Over stands out tonight. While Misiorowski is unlikely to give up many runs given his current form, the same cannot be said for Manaea.
His issues with the long ball and hard contact allow Milwaukee to put runs on the board early and push this total within reach.
Both bullpens are decent right now, with FIPs sitting around three. However, neither relief corps is untouchable, which means some late scoring could still help this game get Over the number.
Play this pick down to +100.
Brewers vs Mets home run prediction: William Contreras (+414)
William Contreras has just one home run in the last week, but his fly-ball profile and matchup against Manaea present value.
The catcher owns a 42.9% hard-hit rate over his previous five contests with a 20-degree average launch angle, giving him enough lift to threaten today. Manaea has been very prone to the home run lately, allowing a 58.3% fly-ball rate over his last two starts with a 23.8% HR/FB rate.
Contreras has also homered off Manaea before, and while it is a small sample, he is 4-for-11 lifetime against the southpaw.
Play this pick down to +400.
- ML/RL bets: 58-70, -20.33 units
- Over/Under bets: 70-54, +5.77 units
Brewers vs Mets weather
Weather at Citi Field looks a bit damp but playable, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures holding around 74-76°F. Humidity is high, winds are noticeable at 8–13 mph, and rain chances sit around 27–33%. There’s some shower risk, but nothing that screams major delay concern.
Brewers vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Brewers -219 | Mets +197
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (-116) | Mets +1.5 (+101)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+114) | Under 7.5 (-126)
Brewers vs Mets trend
The Over is 7-0 in Sean Manaea's last seven starts vs. NL Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Mets.
How to watch Brewers vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date | Thursday, August 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, SNY |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (13-5, 1.68 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Sean Manaea (4-5, 4.31 ERA) |
Brewers vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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