The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds wrap up a three-game series at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Thursday afternoon.
The Dodgers have been treated rather rudely in their two games in the Queen City so far, falling in a 9-8 slugfest in Tuesday’s series opener, while dropping an 8-6 decision on Wednesday evening.
The Reds' offense continues to rack up plenty of runs, but they’ll have their hands full with one of the best in the business on Thursday afternoon.
Can the Dodgers salvage something from this series, or will the Reds complete the surprising three-game sweep? I break it all down in my MLB betting picks for Dodgers vs. Reds below.
Dodgers vs Reds odds
Dodgers vs Reds predictions
The Los Angeles Dodgers' offense hasn’t been the problem, as 14 runs in two games should be more than enough to get the job done. However, L.A.'s pitching has been tuned up in the first two games of this series.
L.A. hopes that changes with veteran Clayton Kershaw toeing the slab at GABP on Thursday afternoon. However, while the southpaw has been money at home with a 4-1 record and 1.45 ERA, teams are hitting .262 against him on the road. He's a rather mortal 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA with seven of his 10 homers allowed away from home.
In addition, Kershaw could be a little distracted this week after making his beliefs and values known — after being asked ad nauseam — due to an upcoming team promotional night. Will his focus be a little off Thursday afternoon? Even when he's locked in, he has a 4.15 ERA in 21 2/3 innings across four daytime starts.
While it seems like a great idea to bet against Kershaw, playing the value on the underdog home side, well, not so fast.
Cincinnati righty Graham Ashcraft has managed a 3-4 record and 6.64 ERA with a .288 opponent batting average across 62 1/3 IP in 12 starts this season. If that’s not bad enough, he is even more putrid at home, going 2-3 with an unseemly 8.49 ERA with six homers allowed and a .300 OBA in just 29 2/3 IP across six starts.
With Kershaw on the hill, it’s generally not a great idea to play the Over. However, he's been very giving on the road, the Reds have been piling up the run in this series, and Ashcraft essentially pitches batting practice to the opposition at GBAP. Go high on the total in this matinee.
My best bet: Over 9.5 (-114 at BetRivers)
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Dodgers vs Reds moneyline analysis
The Dodgers have inexplicably dropped two games against the sub-.500 Reds, and they turn to their future Hall of Famer to stem the tide of losing, but can he?
Los Angeles has dropped five of its past six games on the road while going 0-5 in the previous five in Game 3 of a series. As Steve Spurrier would say... not very good. The Dodgers are also a dismal 2-7 in the past nine when losing the first two games of a series.
For the Reds, they enjoy a southpaw and a little home cooking. Cincinnati has won 10 of the past 11 games at Great American Ball Park when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Cincy handles the bat well against lefties overall, going 5-1 in the past six against southpaws.
While the Reds are just 3-8 in the past 11 in Game 3 of a series, the Reds have been mashing the ball in this series, and they should be able to continue against Kershaw, who has looked human on the road.
Still, if you're playing a side, it’s clearly Los Angeles, as Kershaw is heads and tails more consistent than Ashcraft.
Dodgers vs Reds Over/Under analysis
The Over is not the first play you might think about when Kershaw is on the bump. However, the Over has cashed in each of his past three starts, and again, he has that very ordinary 4.70 ERA on the road this season. The Over is 5-1-1 in Kershaw’s seven starts on the road this season, too.
The Over is 16-5 in the past 21 games overall for Los Angeles and an impressive 22-8-1 in its last 31 games on the road. Against losing teams, the total has gone high in four in a row.
For the Reds, the Over has connected in six straight outings when Ashcraft is on the mound, and the Over is 4-1 in his past five assignments at home.
It's hard to play the Over with Kershaw on the mound, but we should see plenty of offense in this getaway date contest.
Dodgers vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, June 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Los Angeles, Bally Sports Ohio |
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (7-4, 3.25 ERA): The veteran southpaw had faced just five current Cincinnati batters, and they’re hitting a collective 2-for-22 with 11 strikeouts against him. While that’s all well and good, Kershaw has served up seven of his 10 home runs allowed on the road this season, and teams are hitting 82 points higher against him on the road than at home.
Graham Ashcraft (3-4, 6.64 ERA): The 25-year-old Alabaman has faced just two current Dodgers previously, and they’re a collective 1-for-8 against him, although Miguel Rojas did pick up two RBI vs. the righty. Ashcraft has had a problem with the long ball, allowing eight homers in his past six starts, while serving up two in a game in three of the past five outings. He was hammered for 10 runs last time out against Milwaukee on Saturday.
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The Over is 6-0 in Graham Ashcraft's last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Reds
