The Los Angeles Dodgers (31-20) and Tampa Bay Rays (37-15) meet for Game 2 in a series that might as well be a clash of titans.
The Rays grabbed an easy 9-3 win in Game 1 on Friday, asserting the AL’s superiority in this interleague clash — at least for now.
Saturday’s afternoon game figures to be a great one with Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow on the mound for their respective squads.
I’ve got you covered with a best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Rays on Saturday, May 27.
Dodgers vs Rays odds
Dodgers vs Rays predictions
Although this game features two high-caliber starting pitchers, it also features two potent lineups. That makes the total a fascinating handicap.
Tyler Glasnow has been extremely effective when on the mound, but the when in that sentence is doing a lot of heavy lifting. He’s thrown more than 90 innings in a season just once in his seven-year career as he continues to be plagued by injuries.
His career ERA of 4.00 won’t wow you, but he’s been mostly stellar outside of a 7.69 ERA in his first full season in the big leagues (2017) that is dragging down his overall numbers.
While debating Glasnow’s overall effectiveness is certainly an interesting debate considering the small sample size due to injury, one thing is not up for debate — he gets a brutal matchup in his return. The Dodgers have teed off on right-handed pitching, posting a 115 wRC+ (second) and .340 wOBA (also second). Unsurprisingly, they’re 6-1 O/U in their last seven games against a right-handed starter.
Clayton Kershaw has solid numbers this season, but I can’t get away from the fact that his 7.5% barrel rate is the second-highest figure of his career while his 6.0% BB-rate, while still solid, is the highest it’s been since 2012. His profile isn’t bad, but it does leave me with just a few question marks — and that’s enough to change this handicap.
He gets an extremely tough matchup here against a Rays lineup that has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this season, ranking first in wRC+ (162) and second in wOBA (.397). Looking at recent form, they’ve managed to somehow be even more impressive with a 195 wRC+ and .433 wOBA — numbers that don’t usually exist on this planet.
Given those ungodly numbers, it should come as no surprise that the Rays have hit four straight Overs when facing a left-handed starter.
Both teams have been Over machines this season. The Dodgers are 28-22-1 O/U on the year while the Rays have mashed their way to 31-18-3 O/U. Tampa Bay has cashed the Over in seven straight home games.
It might come as a surprise considering the quality of both respective ball clubs, but this matchup features two subpar bullpens. The Dodgers sport a 4.59 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in relief, while the Rays have a 4.49 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
If it’s not clear by now, I’m taking the Over as my best bet. I’d play it up to 8.5.
My best bet: Over 8 (+100 at Caesars)
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Dodgers vs Rays moneyline analysis
The total certainly is a fun one to handicap as well, as the current line is close to a pick ‘em with Tampa Bay being ever-so-slightly favored at most books.
The Dodgers have typically turned on the jets during Game 2 of a series, going 72-24 in their last 96 such games. They have routinely beat right-handed pitching to a pulp, with a 76-34 record in their last 110 games vs. a right-handed starter.
On the flip side, the 2023 Rays seem to have emerged straight from the sun’s core to wreak fiery havoc on mere mortals. They’ve won five straight against left-handed starters and have been nearly unbeatable at home with a 24-5 record at Tropicana Field. If we bring the timeline back a bit to last season, the Rays are 40-12 in their last 52 home games.
Interleague play has been a record-padding endeavor for both ballclubs. The Dodgers are 49-21 in their last 70 games against the AL, while the Rays are 37-16 in their last 53 games against the NL.
Playing the moneyline would be one of the last bets I’d make in this game that features such starting numbers from both respective lineups at the plate. The Rays have been otherworldly at home yet are sending a pitcher to the mound for his first start of the year against a tough opponent. Kershaw has been fine, but he has a few questionable metrics and faces a Rays lineup that turns left-handed pitching into dust.
Dodgers vs Rays Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 7.0 before quickly getting steamed up to 8.0 at current. I’m in agreement with the early money that moved this line, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ticks up more up until game time.
The Dodgers have comfortably squashed righties and are 16-5 O/U in their last 21 games against a right-handed starter. Glasnow has solid career numbers, but his 4.00 career ERA isn’t exactly what one would expect from someone who has a reputation as an elite talent. Thus is the issue when one cannot stay healthy in order to build a larger sample size of data.
Kershaw runs into a buzzsaw of a Rays lineup that is 8-0 O/U in its last eight games following a win. They have been so dominant this season that their 139 wRC+ is a full 19 points higher than the next-closest team, while their .362 wOBA is 20 points above the next-closest team.
There’s some volatility in this total handicap, as Glasnow is an unknown wildcard in his first start, but every other factor seems to point toward runs. Kershaw is obviously solid, but he faces the league’s best lineup against lefties, and the Dodgers mash right-handed pitching. There’s a reason the trends all point in one direction.
Dodgers vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, May 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, BSSUN |
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (6-4, 2.98 ERA): Kershaw has been superb in his age-35 season with a 2.98 ERA and 29.7% K-rate. He’s shown signs of mortality after an unreal start to the season, surrendering 11 earned runs across his last four starts. His 3.33 xERA and 3.29 FIP both indicate minor regression, but nothing serious. He’s seen an uptick in velocity, averaging 91.3 mph on his fastball — his highest mark in three years.
Tyler Glasnow (2023 debut): The tall right-hander finally makes his return for Tampa Bay. That’s a thought that should make competitors tremble, as the Rays have been the best team in the league without arguably their most talented starter. He made just two starts a year ago after 2021 Tommy John surgery and then has been sidelined since spring training with an oblique injury. He sports a strong 2.87 FIP since the start of the 2019 season.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Over is 5-1 in Dodgers' last six overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rays
