The NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field for the third game of a four-game series.
The Corbin Burnes saga continues as the $210 million man returns to the mound. See why I’m fading him by playing a Mookie Betts prop in my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for May 10.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Dodgers vs Diamondbacks best bet: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
The Arizona Diamondbacks were hoping for ace-level production out of Corbin Burnes when they signed him to a $210 million contract this offseason. So far, he’s fallen short of expectations.
There are some underlying health concerns, especially lately, when his start was pushed back due to right-shoulder inflammation.
You never want to see that with a pitcher, but Burnes avoided an IL stint after an MRI and cortisone shot. All eyes will be on the former NL Cy Young Award winner tonight to see if he resembles his old self.
I have enough question marks to remain bearish until given a good reason to think otherwise.
His 5.34 xERA and 5.13 FIP are far off his career numbers. The 30-year-old isn’t making batters miss (career-low 9.2% swinging strike rate) and is issuing a career-high in free passes (12.1% walk rate).
Batters are making quality contact off him, leading to a fifth percentile hard-hit rate and a 23rd percentile barrel rate. The recent shoulder inflammation only provides more skepticism that he’ll immediately revert to his former self.
Burnes operates with reverse splits, allowing a 5.69 FIP to right-handed batters. Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers also has reverse splits, batting .283 with a 127 wRC+ against RHP.
Betts has favorable pitch-type splits in this matchup as he obliterates the cutter (.448 BA and .621 SLG in 2024) and the slider (.314 BA and .657 SLG), which Burnes throws a combined 69.5% of the time to righties.
It’ll be a warm day in Arizona with temperatures approaching 100 degrees. There’s a taxed bullpen behind Burnes thanks to Eduardo Rodriguez lasting 2 2/3 disastrous innings on Friday.
Betts has recorded 2+ total bases in seven of his last 10 games, and the books are offering plus money he does so again.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases
Eugenio Suarez 2+ total bases
Over 9.5
Dustin May takes the bump for the Dodgers. His 15th percentile xBA, 14th percentile average exit velocity, and 17th percentile hard-hit rate don’t inspire much confidence.
The average velocity on his most-utilized pitch, his sinker, is down 3.6 mph from its peak a few years ago. He has reverse splits (.260 BA to right handers), as does Eugenio Suarez (144 wRC+ against RHP).
Suarez demolishes the sinker (142 wRC+), which makes him a candidate to do damage against May.
Neither starting pitcher is on top of their game, and both bullpens have had to do heavy lifting lately. I’m betting on a high-scoring game at a warm Chase Field.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -110 | Arizona -110
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+150) | Arizona +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend
Mookie Betts has recorded 2+ total bases in seven of his last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Dodgers vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, 5-10-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNLA, ARID |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Dustin May (1-2, 4.36 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Corbin Burnes (1-1, 3.58 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
