Dodgers vs Cardinals Predictions, Picks, Odds: Dodgers Do a Number on Matz

After last night’s 24-run affair, the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals will continue their four-game set tonight as Tony Gonsolin opposes Steven Matz, with the home side Cards sitting as slight +105 dogs with a total of 8.5.

The Dodgers’ offense has another great matchup tonight vs. Matz, who is getting crushed by right-handed bats this year. Thanks to a moneyline price that is longer than yesterday, bettors are getting a solid price and number on the visitors’ team total.

Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Cardinals on Friday, May 19.

Dodgers vs Cardinals odds

Dodgers vs Cardinals predictions

Steven Matz carries a 5.17 ERA into a tough meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it could be a short outing for the St. Louis Cardinals lefty.

Of Matz’s eight starts this year, half of them have come against Bottom-10 offenses in Detroit, Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. Right-handed hitters have also had their way with the southpaw as they are slashing .341/.396/.541 vs. Matz. As a result, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez, and Mookie Betts could have big days. The visitors also have some decent right-handed depth bats in Chris Taylor and Trayce Taylor. 

Matz is not anything more than an average pitcher who THE BAT projects as a 4.70-ERA starter. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down, which is never a good combination. His sinker is his most-used pitch at 57%, and it's breaking well below the league average vertically and slightly less than average horizontally. Batters are hitting .281 vs. his sinker and creating hard contact at a 45% rate.

The hitting conditions aren’t as great as yesterday, but with his high walk rate and a true 5.42 ERA over his last two seasons (89-plus innings), there isn’t much to like about the St. Louis starter. This L.A. lineup can throw up some crooked numbers tonight.

I do like the Dodgers moneyline at -120 or better, and I also like the offense to continue to score at a high rate in a great matchup, making the team total Over 4.5 at -105 a little better value.

My best bet: Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (-105 at Caesars)  

Dodgers vs Cardinals moneyline analysis

The L.A. bullpen has been very busy coming into tonight’s game and might be called upon again tonight as Tony Gonsolin hasn’t thrown more than 85 pitches, and the L.A. rotation is looking thinner with the Dustin May injury.

May lasted just an inning in Wednesday’s start, and with Julio Urias going just three innings yesterday, the Dodgers bullpen has thrown 13 innings and has allowed 13 runs over a two-day stretch. However, Dave Roberts sacrificed his worst arms last night, and all the best L.A. middle-inning pitchers are available tonight. Considering the Dodgers were -155 last night and are -120 tonight, taking the visitors might be the better bet.

Gonsolin might not be throwing 100 pitches today, but his frames will likely be better than Steven Matz’s, as the St. Louis lefty has struggled this year and has faced some of the worst offenses in baseball. Matz is a lefty who gets hit hard, doesn’t miss many bats, and has command issues. Possible light rain won’t help the situation vs. an offense that hits home runs and scores at a Top-4 rate.

Additionally, St. Louis could be without Tommy Edman, who was lifted from last night’s game with an abdominal injury. He was hitting behind a red-hot Nolan Arenado so potentially missing Edman's bat is a blow to the middle of this order. 

This is another solid matchup for the L.A. offense, and Gonsolin isn’t being overpriced as much as Urias was yesterday. The Cardinals are 8-2 SU in their last 10, but also used four bullpen arms yesterday. The market likes the Cardinals, but since the price has swung from Dodgers -130 to -113, I think there should be some buyback on the team with the better pitching and offense.

Dodgers vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis

Yesterday’s total saw an opening number of 8.5 that moved as high as 9.5, as the market was certainly right in expecting runs with a game that finished with 24 runs on 21 hits and three errors. 

Today we’re getting 8.5 and, just like yesterday, we're seeing some across-the-board movement to the Over with some sharper books moving to 9.

THE BAT is projecting 5.65 earned runs from the starting pitchers, and there is a chance that both bullpens will be eating 12 outs or more as Gonsolin hasn’t ramped up yet, and I doubt Roberts will want to push him considering the injury to May. Matz could easily continue to get hit hard and often.

Yesterday had better hitting conditions, which is why we might be seeing a slower move to the Over 8.5. Last night’s game had mid-80s temperatures and sunshine, while tonight’s contest has a 50% chance of rain and 70-degree temps. 

I do think the Dodgers’ bats have the better matchup and get a boost as the visitors will get all of their at-bats. I’d prefer the L.A. team total Over 4.5 at -105 than the full game Over 8.5, as Gonsolin is the better starter and the Dodgers’ bullpen isn’t in as rough shape in terms of availability as it would seem. 

Dodgers vs Cardinals game info

Starting pitchers

Tony Gonsolin (1-1, 1.42 ERA): Gonsolin will be making his fifth start of the season tonight. He is coming off a scoreless effort vs. the Padres in his last outing allowing just two hits and a walk over five frames (85 pitches). His leash is still likely to be short, so an already-taxed bullpen will be asked to eat more innings. THE BAT is projecting 83 pitches, 14.6 outs, 4.11 strikeouts, and 2.62 earned runs.

Steven Matz (0-4, 5.62 ERA): Matz has yet to record a win this year, and owns a 37/16 K/BB ratio over 41-plus innings. He’s allowed a homer in all but two of his eight starts, and his high ERA is well-deserved, as he has faced some poor competition this season. THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches, 16.1 outs, 4.88 strikeouts, and 3.03 earned runs.

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The Dodgers are 5-0 in Gonsolin’s last five road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cardinals

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