Dodgers vs Cardinals Predictions, Picks, Odds: Effective Start for Urias Not in the Cards

The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals open up a four-game set tonight at Busch Stadium with gorgeous 82-degree temperatures and a slight wind blowing out to left field. Both clubs enter tonight hot with matching 8-2 SU records over their last 10 games.  

A day after losing Dustin May for an extended amount of time, Julio Urias and the Dodgers enter the opener as decent -150 road favorites, with a total of 9 that’s leaning to the Over.

The L.A. offense will have a great matchup vs. Adam Wainwright, who will be making just his third start of the season and currently sits in the Bottom 1% of the league in fastball velocity. The Cardinals' offense shouldn't be ignored either, and early bettors piled on the Over, moving it nearly a full run as both offenses can flex tonight.

Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Cardinals on Thursday, May 18.

Dodgers vs Cardinals odds

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Dodgers vs Cardinals predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers rotation took a massive hit yesterday with Dustin May hitting the IL with an elbow injury that will sideline him for 4-6 weeks at a minimum. That could mean Dave Roberts continues to handle his starters with care, which could lead to a shorter outing for today’s starter Julio Urias.

Urias was already averaging 90 pitches per start, and hasn’t thrown more than 86 pitches in back-to-back starts. His leash wasn’t long to begin with, and the injury to May doesn’t help either. 

He’s also a pitcher whose reputation might be greater than his output as he's less than a K/inning player, has seen his HR/9 increase with 10 homers over nine starts, and THE BAT projects him as a 4.04 ERA pitcher on the year. He’s also managed by Roberts, who has a notorious short leash for his front-end younger starters. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are no easy lineup either. They may be 18-26 SU on the season, but there is enough talent in this lineup to knock Urias out early in a park with the warmest outdoor hitting conditions on the slate. St. Louis is a Top-5 offense in terms of wRC+ and strikes out at the seventh-lowest rate in baseball.

THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches and just 16.6 outs for Urias. Plus bettors are getting +110 on his Under 17.5 outs. That’s a 55.2% win probability at plus money, which means solid value. 

My best bet: Urias Under 17.5 outs (+110)

Dodgers vs Cardinals moneyline analysis

At 28-16, the Dodgers are the best team in the National League, and are being powered by the No. 4 scoring offense in baseball despite the No. 21 team ERA. It's a potent lineup that's back to full health, and has a great matchup today vs. a 41-year-old pitcher who is dealing with a velocity dip and is making just his third start of the season in decent-hitting weather.

Adam Wainwright has allowed eight runs over his first 10 innings of the year, and is pitching in his 18th season in the big leagues. He currently sits in the Bottom 1% in fastball velocity. His sinker, which sat 88.6 mph a season ago, is averaging 87.4 through 10 innings this year. 

He is not a pitcher I want to back even at +130, as the Dodgers’ offense is elite, and the environmental conditions aren’t in his favor. 

Even after the Dodgers are done feasting on Wainwright, they might get 12 or more outs vs. a bullpen that could be missing its three best leverage pitchers in Ryan Helsley (closer), Giovanny Gallegos (set-up), and Andre Pallante (set-up), as each of the three pitchers threw more than 20 pitches last night and could be unavailable.

It’s a great spot to back an L.A. team that is 7-1 SU over its last eight against a St. Louis squad that is playing above expectations of late with an 8-2 SU record over its last 10. 

The Dodgers opened at -145 and sit at -150 on the moneyline. As the visitors, it’s a little safer to take them on the run line at +105.

Dodgers vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 8.5 and has hit as high as 9.5 at some books.

The Dodgers’ bats should have plenty of opportunities to plate runs, and have a team total of 5.5 which is just +105 to the Over. Wainwright has an earned run total of 3.5, and THE BAT projects 3.53 earned runs from the St. Louis starter.

The St. Louis bats shouldn’t be discounted either. Julio Urias is not a Top-15 pitcher, and is more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher than a 3.00 ERA one. The Cards are a Top-10 offense in nearly all offensive metrics and have plated eight runs or more in four of its last 10 games. THE BAT is projecting 2.59 earned runs from the L.A. starter.

The market was very aware of the run potential in this game and moved the total a full run to the Over in some places. The weather is aiding the hitting conditions, and the Over at 9 looks like the right side of the total tonight.

Dodgers vs Cardinals game info

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (5-3, 3.61 ERA): Urias has completed seven innings in two of his last three starts, and has a 2.29 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP over that stretch. But he has an xERA of 3.70 on the year. He’s striking out less than a batter an inning and has allowed multiple home runs in four straight starts. THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 16.6 outs, 4.82 strikeouts, and 2.59 earned runs.

Adam Wainwright (0-0, 7.20 ERA): Wainwright will be pitching on extra rest, but it might not matter. The 41-year-old starter has made just two starts this season and has given up four runs in each of them in limited work — he's yet to throw more than 90 pitches. He managed just two swinging strikes in his last start vs. Boston, and seven of his 15 hits allowed (10 innings) have gone for extra bases. His velocity is a tick down from last year, and opponents have a .937 OPS vs. the right-hander. THE BAT is projecting 17.2 outs, 3.96 strikeouts, and 3.53 earned runs. 

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