Now that was fun.
The World Series is officially set: the Toronto Blue Jays vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. The “fun” part — at least from a neutral fan’s standpoint — wasn’t the Dodgers' demolition tour through October. But rather the chaos up north. Toronto survived an emotional seven-game thriller of a series, capped by a dose of George Springer magic, to reach the Fall Classic for the first time since the early ‘90s.
But can the Jays actually hang here? My Dodgers vs. Blue Jays World Series breakdown and MLB picks attempt to answer just that.
Blue Jays vs Dodgers Market snapshot
The Los Angeles Dodgers were installed as a roughly -210 market consensus favorite over the Toronto Blue Jays. They are also slightly favored in the series spread market at -1.5, being right around -120 odds.
Toronto will have home-field advantage in this matchup, and just like it was for the Milwaukee Brewers, they’ll be the underdogs in it.
The longest shot on the board? A Toronto sweep at the odds of +2000. The shortest odds on the board are the Dodgers to win in five at +340.
Blue Jays vs Dodgers series winner prediction
Welcome back to the ongoing conversation about betting value versus actual results; it’s great to have you here. This topic may not be more fitting for any sport than baseball, because baseball will, well, baseball.
I picked the Dodgers to be the first repeat World Series champions since the New York Yankees, and while that might not have been a bold call, I don’t feel bad about it now. Still, these teams are much closer in a seven-game series than the odds suggest.
There’s certainly an air of inevitability around the Dodgers right now, but can we talk about the Jays for a moment?
The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays are the only team in MLB history to win a best-of-seven postseason series after losing the first two games at home and being down in the seventh inning or later of Game 7. They’re also just the fourth team ever to win such a series after dropping the first two games at home.
That kind of resilience alone makes them attractive at this number. When you add in that 1) The Jays are the best contact-hitting team in the league by a wide margin, facing a strikeout-heavy rotation, and 2) Their stars are just as hot as the Dodgers’, it becomes a number I can’t pass up.
Pick: Blue Jays (+200 at Caesars)
Blue Jays vs Dodgers total games prediction
| Team | 4-0 | 4-1 | 4-2 | 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Dodgers |
+575 | +320 | +360 | +475 |
 Toronto Blue Jays |
+2000 | +1200 | +750 | +575 |
Odds courtesy of Caesars on 10/21/25.
From a pure numbers standpoint, this was the one that stood out the most, with my fair odds placing it closer to +545.
I’m backing the Jays because I believe they are one of the few teams in baseball with enough power and pitching to match the Dodgers. The Brewers had the pitching but were woefully lacking in the run-manufacturing department. The Philadelphia Phillies were the closest to the Jays in this regard and were unlucky not to at least push the series back to Philly.
The “golden goose” in this series for the Jays, and where I think they can make their impact, is in the specific matchups against the Dodgers’ starting pitchers. Let’s line them up.
The Dodgers will send out some combination of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani in the first four games. This is an immensely talented group that features, at minimum, a Cy Young winner and a future Hall of Famer. To make this a real series, the Jays likely need to take at least two of these games, and I think they can.
All four of these pitchers have strikeout rates in the 80th percentile or higher, but perhaps more importantly, three of them have chase rates in the top 35% of the sport. What happens when they aren’t getting those chases and whiffs against a team that ranks first in chase contact rate and has the lowest whiff rate overall?
I’m willing to find out at such an attractive price. I’ll also concede that the Dodgers will probably outslug the Jays in a few of these matchups. After all, they are the Dodgers.
Pick: Blue Jays in seven (+575 at Caesars)
Blue Jays vs Dodgers player prop prediction
The silent captain of my projected World Series winners at 50/1 when the rest of the market is at 30/1? Sure.
The theme of this article has been that the reason the Jays have a window in this series is that they don’t strike out much. Nobody represents that moniker better than their catcher, Alejandro Kirk.
He’ll come into this as one of the hardest players in baseball to strike out. His K rate is in the top 5% of the sport, his whiff rate is in the top 15%, and for what it's worth, his expected batting average is in the top 8%. That makes him a strong threat against a host of strikeout pitchers who have had their struggles with hard contact.
The postseason numbers aren’t eye-popping, but they’ve been solid and, if anything, trending upward. Beyond that, there are plenty of reasons to like him. Being a catcher never hurts, the narrative of being the “heartbeat” of a team certainly never hurts, and neither does being a right-handed bat who can neutralize lefty stars. We’ll need some timely hits, but I think this number is off.
Pick: Alejandro Kirk World Series MVP (+500 at Caesars)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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