Friday’s nightcap in the MLB features Game 2 of the opening series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers got the best of this matchup on Opening Day, notching an 8-2 victory. They’ll look to continue their dominance over the NL West in 2023 despite featuring what appears to be a watered-down roster when compared to years past.
Will they keep rolling, or will Arizona stand firm on Friday night? Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers on Friday, March 31 to find out.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions
Game 2’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers will feature Merrill Kelly and Dustin May as the starting pitchers.
Kelly isn’t expected to be fully stretched out for a starter's workload, as his preseason routine was altered due to his participation for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. He lasted into the fifth inning in his final Cactus League tune-up on Sunday, tossing 60 pitches, and we shouldn’t expect to see more than 75 pitches from him tonight.
What can we expect from May, who has pitched sparingly across the past two seasons as he recovers from various injuries? Manager Dave Roberts has moved him into the No. 2 spot in the rotation to follow up Opening Day starter Julio Urias, partly so that he can rotate lefties and righties on the mound. May is being counted on to be at full strength in his return from Tommy John surgery, as this rotation could use him at 100% if the Dodgers are to run through the NL West again this season.
If you ask him, he’s ready to ball out in 2023. “I would say right now is probably the closest I’ve been to pre-surgery, feel-wise,” May said. “I’m in a pretty good spot.”
I expect a successful season out of May, who has so much talent and unfortunately has been unable to display that in recent years as injuries have held him back. In 2020 and 2021, he posted a 2.62 ERA with 79 strikeouts in as many innings across 17 starts. His emergence has been held back since then, but his talent is undeniable.
May has posted a career 8.77 strikeouts per nine innings with a 23.9% strikeout rate. His strikeout prop is set at 5.5 for Friday night, with the best odds sitting at -130 at DraftKings. I think this number will only continue to rise for May this season in a successful return to the rotation, and he should hit this number if he pitches into the sixth inning.
Considering the Dodgers are without both Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson this season due to free agency — and are also without Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and Ryan Pepiot due to injury — they could use all the innings that they can get out of May. He’s apparently 100% healthy heading into the season, and I’ll be backing him to bank his strikeout prop on Friday night.
My best bet: May Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
It should come as no surprise that the Dodgers are favored in this matchup. Current MLB odds list the Dodgers as high as -196 and as low as -180. The best price at current on the Diamondbacks is +175.
Los Angeles has been a machine at home, posting a 39-13 record in its last 52 games at Dodger Stadium. Roberts’ side has dominated this matchup, winning 61 of the last 80 meetings in Los Angeles against their NL West counterpart.
Arizona is just 45-95 in its last 140 games against the National League West. Perhaps Diamondbacks fans will breathe a sigh of relief now that divisional games have been limited starting in 2023.
The Diamondbacks are a somewhat trendy sleeper team this year. Their lineup lacks star power but is capable from top to bottom, and features players that have upside like Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Jake McCarthy, and Alek Thomas.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, are expected to take a slight step back this year, as the lineup is a bit watered down compared to the super teams from years past. Still, you sleep on Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at your own peril.
Add that to the starting rotation being dinged up, and the Dodgers may not be quite the juggernaut that we’ve seen recently. But expecting too much of a drop-off is likely unwise, and there’s still plenty of talent in Hollywood.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
The total is set at 7.5 across most books, although 8 is also available. If you like the Over, take a look at BetRivers or Unibet, where Over 7.5 is being offered at EVEN odds. If you prefer the Under, you can grab an Under 8 ticket at -110 odds at PointsBet.
I have a slight preference toward the Under. Kelly posted career-best numbers a year ago across a gargantuan sample size of just over 200 innings. While most of his numbers are encouraging, one has to be concerned about his 8.3% barrel rate from a year ago. That, combined with the fact that he’s not ramped up to a full workload, is enough to keep me away from making a play on the total.
The Under has typically been a good bet when these two teams face off, going 10-2 across the last 12 meetings. These teams have also combined to go 4-1-1 to the Under across the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers have also tended to get into sleepy games at the end of the work week, going 23-9-2 to the Under across their last 34 Friday games.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, March 31, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Arizona, Spectrum |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Merrill Kelly (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Kelly has been a workhorse for the Diamondbacks, most recently tossing 200.1 innings a year ago en route to a 13-8 record and 3.37 ERA. His peripheral numbers were great last year, as his 3.62 xERA and 3.65 FIP were both career bests. He pitched for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and was slightly behind schedule in regards to getting stretched out for a starter's workload, so we shouldn’t expect him to throw more than 75 pitches on Friday.
Dustin May (0-0, 0.00 ERA): It’s appointment television when May is on the mound. Between his flowing hair, undeniable energy, and tantalizing stuff, he’s a sight to behold on the mound. The issue? Fans haven’t gotten to watch him much lately, as he’s pitched in just 11 games over the past two seasons due to multiple injuries. He’s expected to be fully healthy heading into the 2023 season.
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Trend to know
The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
