The Chicago Cubs face off against the Cincinnati Reds in MLB action tonight. The Reds took the first contest in this four-game set on Thursday, and my Cubs vs. Reds predictions expect another victory from the home side.
Here are my latest MLB picks for Friday, June 7.
Cubs vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Reds moneyline (-115 at Betway)
My analysis
Both of these NL Central squads are sending young southpaws to the hill this evening as the Cincinnati Reds are starting Nick Lodolo, while the Chicago Cubs trot out Justin Steele.
The seventh overall pick in the 2019 draft, Lodolo is having a breakout season with Cincy. The left-hander has pitched to a 3.11 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP through eight starts, and his xERA (2.95) and xBA (.218) suggest that his strong play will continue. He faced the Cubs at Wrigley last Sunday, allowing seven hits and a pair of runs in six innings of work.
Meanwhile, Steele pitched well for Chicago last year but he's regressed and possesses a 4.10 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in seven starts. He started against the Reds last Saturday and surrendered seven hits and walked four, leading to five runs across as many innings.
While both teams have similar OPS numbers on the season, there are a few reasons to give Cincinnati the batting edge tonight. The Reds hit better against southpaws, entering the weekend 12th in the majors in OPS (.718), while the Cubs rank 21st (.683). They've also been red-hot lately, with Cincinnati leading the majors with an OPS of .837 over the last 15 days.
With the Reds having the edge on the mound and the plate, don't hesitate to back them at close to a pick'em price at home.
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Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Reds moneyline
Under 8.5
Cody Bellinger 1+ hits
The full-game total of 9.0 looks too high considering both starters have solid xERA numbers (Steele is at 3.45). The Reds also rank just 28th in expected slugging percentage (.375), while the Cubs are batting just .217 since the start of May.
Although Cody Bellinger has gone hitless in four of his last six games, he had recorded four straight multi-hit games before that. The left-handed Bellinger has a reverse platoon split and is hitting .333 against southpaws this year after batting .337 against them last season.
While Bellinger is installed at -240 to pick up a hit, that multiplier increases in this SGP since we're taking the Under and fading the Cubs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Reds odds
Cubs vs Reds live odds
Cubs vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-210) | Cincinnati -1.5 (+175)
- Moneyline: Chicago +100 | Cincinnati -120
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Cubs vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Reds are 10-3 in their last 13 games, which includes a three-game sweep of the Dodgers and taking two of three against the Cubs in Chicago last weekend.
- The Cubs started the season off strong but have gone just 12-20 since the start of May.
- While the Reds lineup has been on fire, they are just 23rd in the majors in barrel rate while ranking dead-last in exit velocity.
- The Reds have gone below their team total in 16 of their last 20 games at home, while the Cubs are 22-14 to the Under on their team total in their previous 36 games overall.
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Cubs vs Reds trend
The Cubs are 1-10 in Steele's last 11 starts, while the Reds are 7-2 in Lodolo's previous nine. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds
Cubs vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Friday, 6-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports Ohio |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-2, 4.10 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Nick Lodolo (5-2, 3.11 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Cubs vs Reds weather
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