Cubs vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Will Chicago's Offense Prevail Against Snell?

After a rough back half of May when they went 3-11, the Chicago Cubs (26-32) have now won four of their last six games, which includes the first two contests of the four-game set they'll close Monday against the San Diego Padres (27-32). The Padres will send Blake Snell (1-6, 4.50 ERA) to the mound to duel it out with long-time Cub Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 3.86 ERA).

Can the Padres split the set? Or will the Cubs take home a convincing series win in hopes of keeping the NL Central within reasonable reach?

Let's dive into the matchup with our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs Padres on Monday, June 5th.

Cubs vs Padres odds

Cubs vs Padres predictions

To an unknowing eye, the 2023 version of Blake Snell would look like a pitcher who maxed out as a middle-of-rotation type arm during his career. But the former Cy Young winner is much better than what it seems, and he's certainly better than his 1-6 record and even his 4.50 ERA would suggest.

Snell allowed seven earned runs across eight innings during his first two starts this season for the San Diego Padres. But he's improved his ERA in all but one outing since then. That includes his last appearance when Snell allowed zero earned runs across six innings this past Wednesday, striking out seven along the way while giving up just three hits and three walks. 

Snell has also been posting encouraging peripherals, sporting a 72nd percentile fastball velocity, 85th percentile fastball spin rate, and 81st percentile whiff rate. That bodes well against a Cubs lineup that ranks sixth on the year in strikeout rate.

And Snell has been enjoying success against the Cubs over a limited sample. He's allowed just a .240 batting average across 56 combined plate appearances, with Trey Mancini (4-11, one homer) and Yan Gomes (5-13, two doubles and one homer) the only Cubs batters Snell has been struggling with.

Opposite of Snell for Monday's close-out game is Kyle Hendricks, who's now in his 10th season with the Chicago Cubs. Hendricks just recently returned to action for the first time since last July after suffering a tear in his throwing shoulder. His return start was expectedly a tad shaky (three earned runs over four 1/3 innings). But his last outing featured a massive return to form (one earned run over five innings) against a potent Rays offense.

Hendricks also boasts a solid track record against the batters he'll face on Monday, sporting a .230 batting average and .317 slugging percentage over a whopping 141 combined plate appearances while striking out 21.3% of batters and walking just 5.7%.

Manny Machado has recorded a handful of hits against Hendricks (.357 batting average across 14 at-bats), but each one has been a single. Jake Cronenworth (2-for-7) and Juan Soto (4-10) have also been enjoying some success. But every other Padres batter has endured a tough time with Hendricks, including Fernando Tatis Jr (.167 batting average), Matt Carpenter (.214 average over 56 plate appearances), Trent Grisham (0-6), and Ha-Seong Kim (0-5).

The odds hardly reflect the marginal advantage Snell may hold, plus the Padres (22nd in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA) and Cubs (11th in wRC+, 10th in wOBA) have been worlds apart in run production over the last 30 days as well. 

My best bet: Cubs moneyline (+150 at DraftKings)

Cubs vs Padres moneyline analysis

San Diego ranks 25th in strikeout rate and 25th in slugging percentage. The team excels in just two areas really, which are walk rate (first) and stolen bases (10th).

However, the Cubs have allowed the fewest stolen bases per game on the road in 2023. It admittedly may seem strange at first to note that split. But Chicago is positioned to maintain the split for the fourth straight season.

And against the batters they have faced on the opposing roster, Hendricks is beating Snell in batting average (.230 vs .240), slugging percentage (.317 vs .440), and wOBA (.273 vs .329).

Quite simply, the Cubs have been the better team lately while arguably owning the edge on the mound. They also hold the advantage in this series both right now and on the season (5-2).

Cubs vs Padres Over/Under analysis

The total for Monday's game opened at 8.5 with juice favoring the Under. But the odds now show the Over heavily juiced, potentially indicating an eventual move to 9 for those waiting to play the best number.

Chicago is 32-26 to the Over this year, tied for the ninth highest rate of Overs hitting at 55.2%. The Cubs have played to no discernible home-road split after going 15-12 on the road (55.6%).

However, they've played to six straight Unders and have yet to produce an Over against the Padres this year.

The Padres have gone 38-19-2 to the Under in 2023, boasting a league-leading 66.7% of Unders on the year, with just one other team playing to a rate above 60%. They've gone 19-9 that way at home (67.9%). In 2022 they were 46-37-2 to the Under at home, good for the seventh-highest rate.

The Under has hit during four of the Padres' last five games, and they're amidst a larger span of the Under cashing during 23 of the club's previous 29 contests. If the total reaches 9.0, the Padres have played 18-6-1 to the Under in games at or above that total.

Cubs vs Padres game info

Starting pitchers

Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 3.86 ERA):  Hendricks suffered a shoulder tear last July and has only recently returned to action. He allowed just one earned run while lasting five innings during the veteran's second start since returning.

Blake Snell (1-6, 4.50 ERA): The 2018 Cy Young winner started the season with some worrying appearances, but he's since strung together a fair share of quality outings to help bring his ERA down. That includes his last start when Snell pitched a scoreless six innings while tallying seven strikeouts.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Padres have played to the most Unders on the season and have gone 23-6 to that side over the club's last 29 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres

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