The Padres fell to the Cubs in a nail-biter on Friday night but responded with a commanding 6-0 win over the visitors on Saturday.
With Marcus Stroman feeling good, can Chicago clinch the series here on Sunday? I break it all down in my MLB betting picks for Cubs vs. Padres below.
Cubs vs Padres odds
Cubs vs Padres predictions
Marcus Stroman has been damn good.
Yes, his expected ERA is technically over a run higher than his real-life 2.59 ERA, but a 3.37 xERA still puts you in the Top 37% of all pitchers. He’s had just two bad outings all season and while his walks are up, his strikeouts are too. He’s also allowed fewer barrels and pitched to a solid .364 xSLG, which is considerably above the league average.
I think he’s pitched more than well enough to shut down a slumping San Diego Padres offense which is now potentially going to be missing Xander Bogaerts for this game after their prized offseason acquisition said he was dealing with some wrist soreness.
San Diego may rank 12th in wRC+ and Chicago 29th over the last two weeks, but these teams have played very different schedules. The pitching matchup will get a lot easier for the Cubs here, too.
My best bet: Cubs moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
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Cubs vs Padres moneyline analysis
As I alluded to above, this is a much better pitching matchup for the Cubs, because Ryan Weathers will be getting the ball. Chicago struggled with the swing-and-miss capabilities of Yu Darvish, but Weathers pitches to contact with just a 15.8% strikeout rate.
On top of that, Weathers is a fly ball pitcher with a low 39.2% ground ball rate and a 28.4% fly ball rate, which puts him 5.2 points higher than the league average. The Cubs are just outside the Top 10 in the league in fly balls and rank seventh in wRC+ against lefties this season.
With all the reasons listed above between Stroman and Weathers, I think the Cubs have an edge coming into this matchup. I’d expect Stroman’s brilliance to continue, and on the other hand, Weathers’ positive peripherals shouldn’t come into play against a fly ball-happy team.
Cubs vs Padres Over/Under analysis
I’d definitely side with the Under here if I were making a bet on the total. I believe in the Cubs’ bats against a fly-ball lefty, but the fact remains they’re 29th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and still don’t have Cody Bellinger back in the lineup. Dansby Swanson has struggled of late, too.
Weathers’ .231 xBA is pretty solid, as is his 3.65 xERA. I wouldn’t say he’s a better pitcher than Stroman, but he’s comparable at the very least.
A low 39% of the tickets are on the Over here at DraftKings, but the Over has commanded 59% of the handle.
Cubs vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee Sports Network, SDPA |
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (5-4, 2.59 ERA): The veteran finished May with a 2.87 ERA and is coming off a complete-game shutout against the mighty Rays in which he allowed just a hit and a walk with eight strikeouts.
Ryan Weathers (1-3, 4.28 ERA): Weathers has now allowed at least three earned runs in his last three starts and finished May with a 6.32 ERA. He’s only allowed three homers in 33 2/3 innings, however.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Padres are 0-4 in Weathers' last four home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs Padres
