Two of the National League’s best teams will square off Sunday afternoon in the series rubber match.
My Cubs vs. Mets predictions expect a lower scoring game where quality pitching takes center stage.
Let’s take a closer look with my May 11 MLB picks.
Cubs vs Mets prediction
My Cubs vs Mets best bet: Under 8.5 (-120 at Caesars)
This is a sneaky good pitching matchup between a pair of veterans in their debut seasons with new clubs.
Matthew Boyd has pitched very well for the Chicago Cubs, sporting a 2.75 ERA and averaging nearly a strikeout per inning.
His advanced metrics are strong as well, especially of late. He’s allowed a 4.7% barrel rate — barely over half league average — spanning the last four starts. Boyd is not giving up much hard contact.
He has also thrown the fewest pitches per plate appearance of any Cubs starter in that span, which should help him give them length against a quality Cubs lineup.
The New York Mets' Griffin Canning has pitched every bit as well as Boyd. He owns a 5-1 record with a 2.50 ERA and is averaging just over a strikeout per inning.
Canning has held opponents to a 5.3% barrel rate over his last four starts and owns a ground ball rate over 50% along the way. He is not giving up much quality contact and is doing an excellent job of keeping balls in the dirt, greatly limiting the noise hitters can make against him.
While the Cubs are one of the leaders in runs per game, their offense has tailed off in recent weeks — especially against right-handed pitchers. In fact, only four teams have posted a worse batting average vs. righties over the last three weeks.
The Cubs are struggling to string together hits. Facing a pitcher who gives up little hard contact, and induces so many ground balls, isn’t going to help matters.
Given how well both starters are pitching, and how effectively they are limiting power, it should be going to be tough for the offenses to muster up a ton of runs.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Juan Soto Over 0.5 hits
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 hits
While I’m expecting a low scoring affair, that doesn’t mean a pair of superstars can’t pick up a hit along the way.
Juan Soto has a low barrel rate and just one homer against left-handed pitching this season. We haven’t seen much power. What we have seen, though, is a very high contact rate and a .400 batting average.
Soto finding a gap without a ton of power in the swing is exactly what we’re looking for when on the Under of the game total.
On the opposite side, Kyle Tucker is hitting .280 against right-handed pitching and — like Soto — his contact rate is several percentage points above league average.
Tucker did not pick up a hit in Saturday’s win and he has only gone back-to-back games without a hit once over the last five weeks.
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Cubs vs Mets odds
Cubs vs Mets live odds
Cubs vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +110 | New York -130
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-190) | New York -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Cubs vs Mets trend
Juan Soto has four hits over his last three games on home field. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets.
How to watch Cubs vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Sunday, 5-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 12:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Roku |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (3-2, 2.75 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.50 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mets latest injuries
Cubs vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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