Cuba vs Australia World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cuba Causes More Damage

The World Baseball Classic quarterfinals will begin Wednesday morning as Pool A winners Cuba take on the second-seeded Australians of Pool B.

The Cubans finished first thanks to allowing the fewest runs per out in a pool where all four teams finished 2-2 while Australia has a chance to make the final four after a stunning win of South Korea set them up to finish behind Japan in Pool B.

Although I think Australia is a little short here at +300, the Cubans have too good of an offensive matchup and one that I’m looking to take advantage of in the team total market. 

Find out where my best bet lies in WBC free betting picks for Australia vs. Cuba. 

Cuba vs Australia odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 14, 2023.

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Cuba vs Australia picks and predictions

It took the Cuban offense a little to get going, but over the last two games, it's awoken from its slumber.

In their first game vs. the Netherlands, they had just three hits but also went 0-for-7 with RISP. They then had a disadvantage playing Italy in their opener and left a ton of runs on the board, going 3-for-11 with RISP while stranding nine baserunners.

Finally, they got things going in an easy matchup vs. Panama where they went 21-for-44 at the dish and 12-for-21 with RISP in the 13-4 victory. A 7-1 win over Taiwan followed where the bats went 13-for-34 and launched two home runs. 

Because of the early issues in run production, we’re getting a total that might not reflect the chances that Cuba has had to plate runs. Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada are heating up and the Aussies are throwing out a pitcher who walked three of the four batters he faced in pool play and recorded just one out while allowing three runs.

The Cubans will also get to tag an Aussie bullpen that, despite two very easy matchups vs. China and Czechia, still finished with a 5.19 ERA and a 9.0 H/9. 

I had Taiwan as a better pitching team and bullpen than Australia and the Cubans still hung seven runs on 13 of 34 hitting. The Cuban bats are awake and have a great matchup today for at least eight innings.

Australia opened at +300 and I do think that price is long, but I also think Cuba’s offense has an elite matchup and can get dig into this Australian bullpen rather early. This low total is also giving us a better price on the team total.   

My best bet: Cuba team total Over 5.5 (-125 at bet365)

Cuba vs Australia moneyline analysis

Cuba might be the higher-seeded team here but their early play in the pool round wasn’t exactly inspiring. They started the tournament with back-to-back losses to Italy and the Netherlands but won out to finish first thanks to some silly tiebreaker rules. The offense did manage 20 runs over its last two games but this team was lucky to head to the quarterfinals and relied heavily on its pitching.

Cuba allowed just 15 runs across four games and will start Yariel Rodriguez vs. the Aussies. The right-hander started in the opener vs. the Dutch and went four innings, allowing one run on three hits and striking out six vs. arguably the best offense in the pool. He will have a longer leash after being limited to 66 pitches in that game as pitchers can now throw 80 pitches in the knockout round.

Rodriguez will be supported by a bullpen that posted a 3.47 ERA across 22+ innings and was locked on with its command with a 25/4 K/BB ratio. Despite the inconsistent Cuban offense, the pitching has been some of the best in the tournament. 

The Cuban bats did however wake up in the final two games being led by MLBers Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada, who went 9-for-19 over the final two games hitting out of the No. 2 and No. 3 spots.

They’ll face projected Aussie pitcher left-hander Steven Kent who pitches out of the Australian Baseball League. The 33-year-old faced four batters in the opener vs. South Korea and recorded just one out while allowing three runs on three walks and no hits. 

He’s an odd choice to start a game where the loser goes home. He likely won’t have a long leash and will be supported by a bullpen that had a 5.19 ERA with 26 hits allowed through 26 innings. They also faced some very weak opposition outside of Japan and South Korea in Czechia and China.

Australia hit .276 as a team and launched at least one home run in all four of its games but also went 15-for-64 (.234) vs. Korea and Japan and built those offensive numbers vs. the weaker opponents. Thirty-five percent of their runs have come via the long ball while the Cuban pitching has allowed just one home run through four games.   

Despite the love for Cuba, the Aussies aren’t getting a lot of respect here at +300. That’s longer than Panama was vs. Cuba and the same price Czechia was vs. Australia. Cuba is the better team and should flirt with five runs, but looking strictly at the price, Australia is quite long. 

Cuba vs Australia Over/Under analysis

Combined, these two nations are 4-4 O/U. The Cubans were cashing Under tickets early as their offense struggled out of the gates but the bats are alive and coupled with some underrated pitching, that makes betting even this modest total of 9.5 difficult.

Australia is tough to figure out as well. They’ve scored at least eight runs in three of their four games with the one-run performance vs. Japan being the exception. They’ve struggled in the pitching department with a 4.75 team ERA and a bullpen ERA over 5.00.

They were also tied 1-1 late into their final game vs. Czechia and have scored 35% of their runs with home runs. I’m not sure how bankable the home run ball will be Wednesday morning vs. the Cubans who have given up just one dinger in a decent home run environment in Taiwan. 

The Cubans also have a good advantage in starting pitching which is a bigger edge in the quarterfinals with increased pitching limits. The Aussies will be dipping into the bullpen early if Kent mimics his last outing of one out and three walks. 

Rodriguez will be one of the best arms the Aussies have seen. He could be even better than his first outing with a longer leash that moves to 80 pitches in the quarters. 

Although the Under will get some love here, Cuba likely could have scored 25% more runs in pool play and the Aussie long ball could help power the Over.   

Cuba vs Australia game info

Cuba vs Australia starting pitchers

Yariel Rodriquez: The right-hander started in the opener vs. the Dutch and went four innings, allowing one run on three hits and striking out six vs. arguably the best offense in the pool. The right-hander has spent the last two seasons in Japan where he's pitched well for the Chunichi Dragons with a 3.03 ERA over 175+ innings. 

Steven Kent: Kent is a left-hander who pitches in the Australian Baseball League (ABL). The 33-year-old saw one game in pool play and walked three of the four batters he faced and allowed three runs. 

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