Will Clayton Kershaw Record His 3,000th Strikeout This Season?

The Los Angeles Dodgers know pitching.

Sandy Koufax. Don Drysdale. Orel Hershiser. Fernando Valenzuela.

These are the names that have pitched their way into Dodgers lore and arguably the best addition to that list is Clayton Kershaw.

Dubbed “The Claw,” Kershaw has been the anchor of the Dodgers' rotation since a breakthrough campaign in 2011 where he went 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts on route to his first NL Cy Young award.

Twelve seasons, two more Cy Young’s and an MLB MVP award later, Kershaw has an opportunity to reach another elite individual milestone – 3,000 strikeouts.

bet365 has given us a market surrounding Kershaw’s chances at reaching that mark this season, so let’s break down those odds. 

Odds for Clayton Kershaw to record his 3,000th strikeout this season

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 13, 2023.

Three thousand reasons to smile

Before we take a deep dive into Kershaw’s stats and how the second half may go for the aging veteran, let’s take a look at where Kershaw ranks on the all-time strikeout list:

Kershaw currently occupies the No. 21 spot on the all-time strikeout leaderboard and he is just 88 K's away from 3,000 for his career. He will need some things to go his way to catch Zack Greinke to break into the Top 20, but the only thing that matters is getting to that 3,000-strikeout mark by any means necessary.

Kershaw's 2023 season trajectory

Death, taxes, and Kershaw winning baseball games.

That’s been the theme since this southpaw pitcher from Dallas broke into the league in 2008 and this season, at age 35, not much has changed.

Kershaw has started 16 games for the Dodgers and is 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA (best in the NL, third overall) and a 1.04 WHIP with 105 punchouts in 95 1/3 innings. He’s once again leading the team in all major pitching statistics and his 10 wins is tied for fourth across the Majors.

If we break down his numbers even further, Kershaw is averaging seven strikeouts per outing, which would be his best mark since 2017 when he averaged 7.48 strikeouts per game over the course of 27 starts.

I’ve been a big fan of Kershaw since he burst onto the scene and I enjoy nothing more than to see him reach this milestone in a year where the Dodgers are near the top of the World Series odds board (again). 

Close but no cigar

The most important thing we must consider for this novelty prop is the wording. It clearly states "will Clayton Kershaw record his 3,000th K this season?" Barring any major injury which forces him into early retirement, Kershaw will in fact get to 3,000 punchouts, but I don’t believe it will be this season.

He’s currently dealing with a shoulder injury that will likely keep him out for the New York Mets series right out of the All-Star break and possibly even the Baltimore Orioles series that follows.

FanGraphs has him projected for eight or nine more starts depending on weather and rotation management heading into the playoffs, and with those starts comes between 64-70 more innings pitched. If he continues the trajectory he’s currently on – projected for 70 strikeouts – he’s destined to fall short of the 88 he needs to accomplish the feat. 

It’s a bit of juice to lay, but there are far too many factors at play to think anything other than NO is the right side.

My best bet: Will Clayton Kershaw record his 3,000th strikeout this season? No (-190 at bet365)

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