The National League playoffs are just a couple of weeks away, and we have two sides in the thick of things in their respective divisions wrapping up their season series with a three-game set.
The St. Louis Cardinals have an eight-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and have won three of their last five games. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres are hunting for a Wild Card and have a half-game lead over Philadelphia and a two-game lead over the Brewers — with a three-game winning streak on the line Tuesday.
Can San Diego keep its winning streak alive? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres on September 20.
Cardinals vs Padres best odds
Cardinals vs Padres picks and predictions
This is a pennant race, and there's no better pitcher to hand the ball over to than St. Louis Cardinals' veteran, Adam Wainwright.
Wainwright is a 17-year vet, and he’s coming off a solid outing vs the Brewers in St. Louis. Waino allowed just one earned run with three Ks in a 4-1 win over Milwaukee, and St. Louis has won seven of his past 10 starts.
The Cardinals are 10-10 over Wainwright’s last 20 away starts as the underdog, and 2-3 this season when pitching as the road dog. He faces a Padres offense ranked 16th in runs scored, 14th in wRC+, and has scored 21 runs over their past five games.
The Padres slash .238/.317/.381/.698 this season against right-handed pitching, and all this bodes well for Wainwright and St. Louis Tuesday evening.
Mike Clevinger has struggled since his return from his 2020 Tommy John surgery and has hit the IL three times this season with various injuries. The command comes and goes, and he’s striking out two fewer batters per nine than his career 9.63 per nine frames.
The San Diego hurler has allowed 15 earned runs over his past 13 2-3 innings pitched, and that isn’t a good thing when facing a Cardinals side with a 6th-best wRC+ and slashing .251/.321/.411/.732 with the 27th lowest strikeout percentage vs. right-handers.
Wainwright is the recipient of 5.21 runs of support per contest, and facing a clearly struggling Clevinger is almost like a dream come true for the Cardinals offense — and for Wainwright.
Finally, St. Louis is 6-0 in its last six vs. National League West and 6-0 in the last six meetings vs San Diego. Take the Cardinals F5 moneyline with confidence Tuesday.
My best bet: Cardinals first five moneyline (-105 at Bet99)
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Cardinals vs Padres betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
Both sides enter this contest playing winning baseball, but the oddsmakers giving us -130 the way Clevinger has been pitching is too much risk to make that play.
I think the edge can be found in the bullpens.
The Padres traded for Josh Hader, and he’s been dreadful for San Diego — posting a 5.84 ERA — but has thrown four consecutive innings without an earned run.
Conversely, Cards' closer Ryan Helsley has allowed five earned runs over his last 18 frames, and the Cardinals bullpen has a slightly better overall team ERA than San Diego. Looks as though underdog St. Louis has the edge and should be a good play.
Over/Under analysis
7.5 runs isn’t likely enough for this contest.
Clevinger is clearly struggling with command issues, and the patient St. Louis bats should have a big evening and will probably chase him early.
We previously mentioned the run support Wainwright receives, but the Padres plate 4.6 runs when Clevinger pitches, and the Cardinals vet isn’t exactly invincible and neither are the bullpens.
Finally, the over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Diego and 5-0 in the Padres' last 5 home games. Over 7.5 runs looks like a nice play Tuesday.
Cardinals vs Padres game info
• Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Tuesday, September 20, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Starting pitchers
Adam Wainwright (11-9, 3.29 ERA): Wainwright is the Cardinals' probable starting pitcher for Tuesday, and he’s given up 13 earned runs with 14 strikeouts over his previous 27 2-3 frames. Wainwright posts a 3.84 xERA alongside a 3.87 xFIP and his away 4.23 xFIP suggests he’s slightly better pitching at home.
Mike Clevinger (5-7, 4.47 ERA): Clevinger is slated to take the hill, and he’s surrendered 19 earned runs with 17 punchouts over his past 24 1-3 innings. The Padres hurler boasts a 4.63 xERA along with a 4.71 xFIP and his home 4.30 xFIP suggests maybe Clevinger is more successful at Petco Park.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres
