Cardinals vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Don't Expect Burnes' Dominance To Stop Today

The Brewers have won each Corbin Burnes' last eight starts — seven by 2+ runs — and we don't see that ending today against the Cardinals. But with Burnes' dominance, why are we betting on the Over? Find out in our MLB betting picks.

Sep 5, 2021 • 10:40 ET • 4 min read
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Bucks wrap up a three-game series at American Family Field this Sunday.

The Cardinals are playing very well lately but the oddsmakers aren't giving them much of a chance in this one with MLB betting lines installing the NL-Central leading Brewers as massive -259 favorites.

Here are our best free Cardinals vs. Brewers picks and predictions for Sunday, September 5, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. 

Cardinals vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Sunday, September 5, 2021
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Midwest

Cardinals vs Brewers odds

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Starting pitchers

Jon Lester (5-6, 5.05 ERA): The 37-year-old is not the same pitcher he was years ago, when he made five All-Star teams and won three World Series titles. Lester has pitched to a 1.58 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .297 in 22 starts with Washington and St. Louis this season. That said, Lester has looked sharp lately, allowing two runs through 11 1-3 innings in his last two outings. 

Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.27 ERA): Burnes currently has the second-best odds to win the NL Cy Young Award and has pitched to a 0.94 WHIP with an OBA of .203 in 23 starts. He's coming off a strong performance where he limited the Giants to four hits and one run while striking out nine across six innings. The 26-year-old pitched to a sizzling 1.64 ERA through five August starts. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: None.
Brewers: Avisail Garcia RF (Out), Willy Adames SS (Questionable), Kolten Wong 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 40-12 in their last 52 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers.

Run line pick

The Cardinals opened this series with a 15-4 win in Milwaukee on Friday night but fell 4-0 last evening. The Cards are now 11-4 in their last 15 away contests but, despite creeping four games above .500, are still a whopping 12.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead.  

The Brewers have been one of the major league's biggest surprises this season and a big part of that has been their starting rotation — led by Corbin Burnes.

Burnes will get the start this afternoon and he has been nothing short of dominant, pitching to a 2.27 ERA with a whopping 189 strikeouts through 139 innings this season. He's been especially brilliant against St. Louis, allowing just one run and eight hits through 17 innings across three starts. 

Milwaukee has also been hitting the ball much better since the All-Star break, ranking eighth in the majors with an OPS of .766 during the second half of the season.

The Cardinals have also shown improvement at the plate in recent weeks but they'll have a tough time generating offense against Burnes — and with Jon Lester on the mound, they might not be able to keep this game close.

The veteran southpaw was acquired by the Cards at the trade deadline but hasn't been much better with his new club, pitching to a 5.12 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in six starts for St. Louis.

With the Brewers 8-0 in Burnes' last eight starts (and winning by multiple runs in seven of those contests), don't overthink this one and take Milwaukee on the run line. 

PREDICTION: Milwaukee -1.5 (-125)

Over/Under pick

As incredible as Burnes has been this season, the Brewers have actually gone 8-3-2 O/U in his last 13 starts. The Over has also cashed in 10 of Lester's last 15 starts and with how unreliable he's been the last couple of years, it's tough to trust him against a Brewers lineup that is averaging 5.22 runs per game since the All-Star break. 

St. Louis has also upped its offensive production lately, plating 4.96 runs per game over the last 28 days after ranking near the bottom of the majors with 3.99 runs per game prior to that span.

With strong 12 miles per hour winds blowing out towards left field this afternoon, we're leaning towards the Over. 

PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-110)

Cardinals vs Brewers betting card

  • Milwaukee -1.5 (-125)
  • Over 7.5 (-110)

Picks made on 9/5/2021 at 11:20 a.m. ET

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