The second installment of this three-game interleague series gets underway Saturday with the MLB odds favorite Texas Rangers hosting the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee won the first matchup, 9-8, in a game that wasn’t as close as that final score suggests after Texas mounted a monstrous comeback attempt in the bottom of the ninth.
Will the Brewers take care of business once again, or can the Rangers enact revenge on their home diamond? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Rangers on Saturday, August 19
Brewers vs Rangers odds
Brewers vs Rangers predictions
Right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he should be a great candidate to back. Entering this game in fantastic form, Peralta is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his past four starts.
A strikeout machine over that stretch, the right-hander has recorded seven or more Ks in three of those four outings. In fact, Peralta ranks in the 87th percentile or higher this season in both K% and Whiff%.
This is the avenue in which we’ll back the Brewers’ starter in this contest. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 6.5 at FanDuel, a number that he has surpassed in six of his past 10 starts.
This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Texas Rangers. While Texas boasts one of the best lineups in baseball, they are right around the middle of the pack in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Saturday’s projected starting lineup, five of Texas’ nine hitters possess a K% north of 21% this year.
Regardless of whether the Rangers are able to push multiple runs across the plate against Peralta, this lineup is likely to struggle in the strikeout department. Through 21 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Texas lineup possesses a fade-worthy 33.3 K% and 30.8 Whiff%.
My best bet: Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts (-112)
Brewers vs Rangers same-game parlay
Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Under 8.5 (-128)
Brewers ML (+128)
We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.
While Peralta is likely to take care of his side of the business, right-hander Dane Dunning could also serve as a solid candidate to back in this contest. Through 26 appearances on the mound this season, Dunning is 9-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are a tad more concerning, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG. However, even if slight regression hits, Milwaukee’s lineup is not menacing enough to cause too much concern.
With the superior starting pitcher and inferior lineup, the Brewers should be trending more towards the +110/+115 range on the moneyline. With that said, +128 is too good a price to pass up with Peralta in the mound, especially given his recent dominance.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Brewers vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Rangers opened as a –152 favorite and have remained at that price at the time of writing. We should expect to come down a bit before first pitch, given Peralta’s recent success and stronger underlying metrics relative to Dunning.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 8.5 and has stayed at that number. However, the juice is already growing larger on the Under, and it would not be shocking if the number drops to eight prior to the game.
Texas’ powerhouse lineup is keeping this total on the higher side for a Peralta/Dunning matchup, but Milwaukee’s lackluster offense should make up for that.
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Trend to know
Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his past four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Rangers
Brewers vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, August 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Starting pitchers
Freddy Peralta (9-8, 4.08 ERA): Peralta’s surface-level stats are not indicative of his talent level. First of all, his underlying metrics are much stronger, as he ranks in the 76th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG. Secondly, his underwhelming surface-level stats are somewhat watered down due to two outlier outings in which he allowed six earned runs. Lastly, he enters this contest in tremendous form, going 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his past four starts.
Dane Dunning (9-4, 3.10 ERA): Dunning possesses an opposite profile of Peralta. With strong surface-level stats and poor underlying metrics, regression is looming for the right-hander.
