The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies square off for the deciding match of a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball.
The Phillies (6-9) have struggled out of the gates in 2022 but did grab a 4-2 win in Game 1 of the series. The Brewers (9-6) bounced back with a 5-3 win in Game 2 on Saturday, scoring five unanswered runs after falling behind early.
Veteran right-hander Aaron Nola will be on the bump for the Phillies, while lefty Eric Lauer gets the nod for the Brewers.
Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, April 24.
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Phillies opened -150 favorites but took some early action, widening the line from -159 to -175 depending on the book. The total opened at 8.0 but has moved down to 7.5 at most spots.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Brewers vs Phillies predictions
Picks made on 4/24/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brewers vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• First pitch: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Brewers vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eric Lauer (1-0, 3.48 ERA): Lauer is a 26-year-old lefty who has been pitching in the majors since 2018, spending two years in San Diego before joining Milwaukee in 2020. A year ago, Lauer put up career numbers with a 3.19 ERA across 118.2 innings. The peripheral numbers (3.87 xERA, 4.26 xFIP) show that he may have been a tad lucky, but he’s a fine young pitcher.
Aaron Nola (1-2, 5.52 ERA): It hasn’t been a great start to the season for Nola, who has allowed nine earned runs across his first 14 innings pitched in 2022. Is Nola on the decline? His 4.63 ERA in 2021 was his worst since 2016, although his 3.35 xERA shows that he may have been unlucky. He had a stellar 11.11 K/9 ratio a year ago and is at his best when he’s missing bats.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Brewers: Luis Urias 2B (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out), Justin Topa RP (Out).
Phillies: Didi Gregorious SS (Questionable), Mickey Moniak CF (Out), Rafael Alejandro Marchan C (Out), Sam Coonrod RP (Out), Ryan Sherriff RP (Out), Kent Emanuel RP (Out), JoJo Romero RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six meetings in Philadelphia. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies
Brewers vs Phillies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This line is surprisingly wide. The Phillies opened as -150 favorites at home and the line has moved further in their favor despite the fact they’ve been burning a hole in bettors’ wallets to begin the 2022 season (down $597 on the money line for a $100 per game bettor).
A closer inspection makes it a little easier to see why the Phillies are favored. They arguably have the better pitcher and better lineup on Sunday. It’s difficult to accurately rate Aaron Nola, who has an ugly 5.52 ERA after three starts to follow up a disappointing 4.63 ERA in 2021. Eric Lauer is a solid innings eater, but we’d still favor Nola if comparing the two.
The Phillies have the better lineup, scoring 4.43 runs per game (12th) compared to 3.64 for the Brewers (21st). The Brewers rank just 21st in wOBA and 24th in wRC+ — this is far from an impressive lineup.
Philadelphia has mashed against left-handed pitching, ranking first in the league with a .305 batting average against southpaws. Nola’s 3.35 xERA was below his actual ERA of 4.63 a year ago, so some positive regression can be expected.
The early returns in 2022 haven’t been great, but his 36.4% home run to flyball ratio is well above his career mark of 14.2%. If Nola can keep the ball in the yard against this weak Milwaukee lineup, Philadelphia will be in good position to nab a win on Sunday Night Baseball.
The Phillies have been far from a profitable side to back thus far, but this lineup loves lefties and Nola is due for some positive regression.
Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-159 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
As alluded to earlier, we expect a better showing from Nola on Sunday night. His home run to flyball ratio is a full 22% above his career average, which is due to normalize over a larger sample. The Brewers are not an imposing lineup and have failed to score over six runs in each of their last 10 games.
Eric Lauer is a solid young pitcher who had a 3.19 ERA a year ago. The Phillies do hit very well against lefties, but Milwaukee has a solid bullpen (3.07 ERA) if forced to relieve Lauer early.
One concern with the Under is an atrocious Phillies bullpen that ranks dead last in the MLB with a 4.58 ERA. It’s not like this is an anomaly over a small sample size, either — they had a 4.60 ERA in relief in 2021.
Phillies’ bullpen aside, enough signs are pointing toward the Under that we’re leaning in that direction.
Prediction: Under 8 (-118 at FanDuel)
Best bet
I believe Aaron Nola is a slightly undervalued commodity at this point in this career. He’s still great at missing bats and his peripherals point toward positive regression, which could come as early as Sunday against an underwhelming Brewers lineup.
Eric Lauer is a good young pitcher, but the Phillies have been the best team in the league against lefties to begin 2022.
Philadelphia’s bullpen is bad enough to scare us off a play on the inflated full-game money line price, so we’ll back its run line over the first five innings instead.
Pick: Phillies first five innings -0.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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