In what amounts to likely the most entertaining game of a small Thursday slate, the Atlanta Braves begin a series with the Cincinnati Reds tonight. MLB Network will carry the game nationally at 7:10 p.m. ET.
I like Cincy to continue its playoff push, but my Braves vs. Reds predictions see more value in a prop for Cincinnati SP Andrew Abbott.
My MLB picks for July 31 break it down below.
Braves vs Reds prediction
My Braves vs Reds best bet: Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 strikeouts (-150 at bet365)
It’s hard for me to understand this strikeout number both perceptually and projection-wise, but we’ll happily grab Andrew Abbott to eclipse it as our best bet.
My numbers make this strikeout line around 5.5, and just earlier this year, Abbott went five innings and struck out five on the road against this same Atlanta Braves team.
Now he comes back home against this exact Braves team, having eclipsed this strikeout number in three starts. Again, we’re happily betting it.
After a few weeks into the season, the Braves started to revert to their old form at the plate — and by old form, I mean free-swinging, all-or-nothing approaches. Since the start of July, Atlanta has the 8th-highest strikeouts per game in the majors at 8.55, and more recently that number has increased to nearly ten.
In addition to that, they are in the bottom ten of key metrics you look for when assessing strikeout potential — things like the 7th-lowest contact rate on pitches thrown in the zone.
These are aspects that should have Abbott — who has pitched at a Cy Young level — foaming at the mouth for the second edition of this matchup.
He’s armed with strong strikeout metrics pretty much across the board, and a final feather in his cap is less reliance on the fastball compared to a season ago, as his usage of that pitch has dropped by 6%.
Braves vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 strikeouts
Tyler Stephenson home run
I won’t be passing up the opportunity to fade Braves pitcher Carlos Carrasco in a hitter-friendly park.
I’m choosing to do that by taking Tyler Stephenson to go yard. Carrasco will enter this game with a bottom-10 barrel rate and is a slider/sinker-heavy thrower.
Stephenson ranks in the top 10 percent of baseball in hard-hit rate against both of those pitches.
Braves vs Reds odds
Braves vs Reds live odds
Braves vs Reds opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +130 | Cincinnati -155
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-155) | Cincinnati -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Braves vs Reds trend
The Reds have hit the Under in 59 of their last 100 games (+18.40 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Reds.
How to watch Braves vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Thursday, 7-31-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Braves starting pitcher | Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.91 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.09 ERA) |
Braves vs Reds latest injuries
Braves vs Reds weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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