The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox will both be seeking a series win on Sunday afternoon when the two sides face off at Fenway Park.
Spencer Schwellenbach takes the mound for Atlanta, who hope to turn around their poor record on the road. The Red Sox will hand the ball to Brayan Bello as they seek to move back to .500 on the season with a win.
Rafael Devers was key to Boston’s comeback win on Saturday, and my Braves vs. Red Sox predictions back him to stay hot.
Read more about my MLB picks for Sunday, May 18.
Braves vs Red Sox prediction
My Braves vs Red Sox best bet: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-109 at Caesars)
Rafael Devers is the third-favorite on the betting market for this game to hit a home run at +290. And while he’s got a terrific chance to do so today, backing him to rack up multiple bases is the safer and smarter play here.
The Boston Red Sox slugger has turned it on since the calendar ticked over to May, with a .411/.507/.625 split since the start of the month. And he’s been particularly dangerous at Fenway Park, where he’s hit .329 with 26 hits — 11 for extra bases — in 79 ABs.
He’s poised to take advantage of a matchup with Spencer Schwellenbach, who has regressed heavily towards the mean after a solid start to the season. He’s allowed six home runs through nine starts, all coming against left-handed hitters, and has a 4.86 ERA on the road compared to a 2.63 mark at Truist Park.
Devers ranks in the 95th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and walk rate. He’s pulled four of his eight home runs on the season, all of which would have been home runs at Fenway Park, and he will have a 16 mph wind blowing out towards Pesky’s Pole on Sunday.
Schwellenbach has been relying more on his fastball and slider this season, with the two offerings comprising nearly 52% of his pitch selection compared to 48.7% a season ago. But he’s having less success with the slider due to a decline in horizontal break, and Devers has punished sliders this season with a .316 average and .526 slugging % against the pitch.
These two have only faced off twice previously, and Devers took him yard in one of the two at-bats. When you combine Schwellenbach’s struggles against LHB and the extremely favorable weather conditions for Devers at the plate, I’ll back the slugger to have another solid day as he builds on his seven total bases in Saturday’s game.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Braves vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Matt Olson Over 1.5 H/R/R
Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts
Matt Olson is enjoying his trip to Fenway Park, going 5-for-9 so far in the series with a home run in each game. He’s facing a pitcher in Brayan Bello who is struggling with command and posting a 1.59 WHIP vs. LHB, and will also have that favorable wind to his advantage. He’s registered at least two H/R/RBI in eight of his last 13 games and will get there again.
Bello has drastically outperformed his metrics this season, getting away with issuing 14 free passes in 26 ⅔ IP. But he ranks below the 10th percentile in strikeout rate and chase rate, and has only reached five strikeouts in one of his five starts. Atlanta’s offense and the favorable hitting conditions could make this a short day for the starter.
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Braves vs Red Sox odds
Braves vs Red Sox live odds
Braves vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -128 | Boston +115
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+135) | Boston +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Braves vs Red Sox trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 52% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Braves vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts |
| Date | Sunday, 5-18-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, FanDuel Sports Network SE/SO, NESN |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (2-3, 3.31 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (2-0, 2.33 ERA) |
Braves vs Red Sox latest injuries
Braves vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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