The Toronto Blue Jays head to the Bronx for a big weekend series with the rival New York Yankees. The AL East foes who expect to compete (along with Tampa Bay) for the division crown all season long head into this matchup separated by just one game in the standings.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Yusei Kikuchi for Friday night’s opener, and as crazy as it may sound, that’s not exactly the doom and gloom scenario as it was last season. Kikuchi has carried over a strong spring into the regular season, which includes a dominant outing against the Rays the last time he was on the mound.
Can Kikuchi keep that momentum going and give Toronto some value as underdogs in this tough matchup against Aaron Judge & Co.? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in my MLB betting picks for Blue Jays vs. Yankees below.
Blue Jays vs Yankees odds
Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions
The reason the Toronto Blue Jays signed Yusei Kikuchi prior to last season was because of his live fastball. At 95.4 miles per hour, he’s the third-hardest throwing left-handed starter in the Big Leagues (behind Shane McClanahan and Jesus Luzardo).
Kikuchi’s problem has always been location. Too often he would lose control of his fastball and then try and throw his slider for strikes, which wound up getting hammered more often than not.
But he tightened up his delivery this offseason, and the pitch clock seems to have helped as well, not letting him think too much about the pitches he's about to throw.
Kikuchi has sandwiched two good starts around a tough outing against the Angels, but his performance last time out against the Rays was his most encouraging start in a long time. Kikuchi allowed just one run on four hits while striking out nine over six innings of work.
And if he's able to locate that fastball tonight against the New York Yankees, he should be able to have some success tonight.
It’s 2023, but this seems like the same old Yankees lineup: Aaron Judge mashes, while Aaron Boone hopes someone else steps up to help out. Left-handers have been a particular problem for the Yankees, hitting just .202 with a .646 OPS against southpaws this season. Those numbers rank 27th and 23rd in MLB, respectively, and they also rank 15th in strikeout rate vs. lefties.
And for all of his troubles last season, the Yankees weren’t his biggest nemesis.
Kikuchi is striking out 10 batters per nine innings so far this season. If he doesn’t completely implode in this matchup he should go Over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. Something he has done in his last two starts and twice last season against the Yankees.
My best bet: Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at SIA)
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Blue Jays vs Yankees moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL East showdown as about even-money road underdogs but the early money has been backing the Yankees with the Blue Jays moving into the +115 to +120 range.
And that makes sense, as many are still waiting to see if this version of Yusei Kikuchi is going to turn back into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight. But as I broke down above, I think there's some value in backing him tonight.
Even in his pumpkin form last season, he did a solid job against the Yankees. In six games (four starts) against New York, Kikuchi pitched to a 3.47 ERA and struck out 24 batters over 20 1/3 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Domingo German gets the call for the Yankees. The right-hander is coming off his best start of the season, limiting the Twins to just one run on three hits while striking out 11 in 6 1/3 inning.
While the Yankees are struggling against lefties, you can’t say that about the Jays vs. righties. They rank sixth in batting average and wRC+ when facing right-handers this season with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Matt Chapman getting off to particularly hot starts.
If you can grab the Blue Jays in the +120 range or better, I don’t think that’s a bad play. Much lower and I’m a little more cautious... this is still Kikuchi after all.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
That said, I think you can have more confidence in the total, which sits at 8.5 as of Friday afternoon.
Kikuchi is probably good to give up a couple of runs even in the best-case scenario. While the lefty hasn’t been hit as often so far this season, when he does get hit, it’s often loud. He still ranks in the Bottom 15% when it comes to average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. And while the Yankees are struggling against lefties, this is still a dangerous lineup that ranks fourth in home runs per game.
And while German has some impressive numbers, in his lone start against a comparable lineup this season (the Phillies), he allowed four runs on four hits in 4 2/3 innings, including two dingers. I'd lean toward Over 8.5 tonight.
Blue Jays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, April 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Blue Jays vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (2-0, 4.70 ERA): Kikuchi put up strong numbers this spring and he's had two solid starts so far this season, including against a Rays team that was absolutely cruising.
Domingo German (1-1, 3.86 ERA): German has been striking out a ton of batters early on, ranking in the 90th percentile in strikeout rate. The right-hander hasn't faced off against the Blue Jays since 2021.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 12-4-2 in Blue Jays' last 18 games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
