Blue Jays vs Tigers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Runs for $200, Alek

Take a deep breath Toronto Blue Jays fans. Alek Manoah is starting a baseball game tonight. Manoah will make his first start since being sent down to the minors to re-find his game, following a disastrous first two months of the season.

Toronto will try to toss Manoah a softball in his return to Big League action by having him take the mound against the light-hitting Detroit Tigers.

But is a month in the minors enough to get Manoah back on track? And is it enough to give you the confidence to back the Jays as healthy road favorites in Detroit on Friday night?

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions, Blue Jays vs. Tigers.

Blue Jays vs Tigers odds

Blue Jays vs Tigers predictions

I was surprised the Toronto Blue Jays recalled Alek Manoah to pitch in this spot and I don’t really understand their thought process here. It seemed like the Blue Jays' would leave the big right-hander in the minors at least through the All-Star break as now this almost feels like a lose-lose situation. 

Manoah either pitches well against the Detroit Tigers and what amounts to a Triple-A lineup, or he pitches poorly against what amounts to a Triple-A lineup.

For those unaware, Manoah was sent down to the Blue Jays training facility in Florida following his June 5 start vs. the Houston Astros, which lasted just a third of an inning where he got tagged for six runs on seven hits. It was the culmination of a dumpster fire that was the first two months of the season for a pitcher who finished third in American League Cy Young voting a season ago.

Nothing was going right for Manoah. His velocity was down. He lost his command. And he wasn’t striking out anyone. The right-hander pitched to a 6.85 expected ERA and surrendered a 2.85 expected batting average and a.495 expected slugging percentage which were all in the Bottom 9% of the MLB.

So, the Jays sent him down to reportedly work on his mechanics and get in better shape. But can that really be accomplished in a month? 

He made one rookie ball start. And he got rocked for 11 earned runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings. Now, sure, maybe he was working on something. But that's bad. His next outing was much better where he gave up just one run on three hits with 10 strikeouts in five innings at Double-A New Hampshire. But is that enough to say he’s ready for Big League hitting again?

Now, the Tigers are bad at hitting but even bad-hitting teams can take advantage of bad pitching. And there is nowhere that Manoah was worse than in the first inning. Manoah owns an ugly 10.95 ERA, surrendering a .959 OPS in the first inning this season. So, the Tigers have a good chance to get off to a good start tonight.

But they’re not the only ones. 

That’s because the Tigers hand the ball to Alex Faedo. The right-hander is making just his sixth start of the season and while the first four went fairly well, pitching to a 4.15 ERA, he got lit up last time out against the Texas Rangers giving up six runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. 

Toronto has some trouble cashing in runners this season, but overall they rank sixth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and sixth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.

I’m taking a shot at Manoah not being ready to return and the Jays bats to be riding the momentum of the week’s sweep of the Chicago White Sox. Take the Over 1.5 runs in the first inning for a nice 2/1 payout. 

My best bet: Over 1.5 first inning total (+200 at SPORTS INTERACTION)

Blue Jays vs Tigers same-game parlay

Yes run first inning

Manoah Under 4.5 strikeouts

Belt 1+ hit

Carpenter 1+ hit

+520 at FanDuel

OK, today’s same-game parlay will certainly be a starting pitcher fade. But instead of Over 1.5 runs in the first inning, let’s give ourselves a little leeway with the first leg and say yes to a run in the first.

Next, even though the Tigers strike out a fair amount, Manoah’s K-rate just hasn’t been there and I’ll need to see it before I can believe it with him. Manoah is striking out just 17% of the batters he has faced this season. 

On top of that, it seems unlikely, the Blue Jays push him too hard in his first start back, so five innings tonight feels like the best-case scenario. He went over 4.5 strikeouts in just six of his 13 starts and just three times when he pitched five innings or fewer. So, Under 4.5 punch-outs it is.

And let’s round this SGP out with a couple of players to get a hit, starting with Brandon Belt. Belt has quietly been one of the Jays' best hitters since the start of May with a .295 average. And if someone takes advantage of Manoah, Tigers’ DH Kerry Carpenter has just a good a chance as anyone. The lefty is hitting .275 and a .833 OPS in his first 44 games this season. That gives us a nice +520 payout.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Blue Jays vs Tigers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The line movement for Manoah’s return has been interesting. The Blue Jays hit the board as about -150 road favorites and my immediate thought was, “I’m not laying that with Manoah.” And I clearly wasn’t alone in that thinking because it was the Tigers who have seen the early money, dropping Toronto down to about -130 at most shops. 

Now, that’s where things start to get interesting because it feels like this start goes one of two ways. Manoah either implodes yet again, or he dominates a Tigers lineup that ranks 27th in batting average, and 28th in OPS and wRC+.

And despite winning a doubleheader yesterday, the Blue Jays lineup is in fairly good shape. The didn’t use Erik Swanson, while Jordan Romano and Nate Pearson only threw 11 pitches each. And long relievers Bowden Francis and Mitch White are ready to go. At -130 or better I would consider the Jays here.

When it comes to the total it opened at 9 and that’s where it sits as of Friday afternoon. Not knowing what we’re going to get from Manoah gives me trepidation when it comes to betting on this number. 

Yes, implosion is certainly on the table, but there’s a chance things click for him as well. Or in the case of an implosion, they can pull the rip cord quickly and turn this into a pseudo bullpen game. With that uncertainty, I’m staying away from the full-game total tonight.

Trend to know

The Blue Jays are 14-4 in their last 18 games vs. AL Central opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers

Blue Jays vs Tigers game info

Starting pitchers

Alek Manoah (1-7, 6.36 ERA): It's hard to believe this is the guy who finished third in AL Cy Young voting last season. In 2022, he only had five starts where he allowed more than two earned runs. That's happened seven times in 13 starts this season.

Alex Faedo (1-3, 5.54 ERA): Faedo is making just his sixth start of the season. The right-hander mostly uses a fastball-slider combination to get batters out. He's had a problem with home runs, surrendering six in his first five starts.

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